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Contiguous Search: Exploration and Ambition on Uncharted Terrain

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  • Can Urgun
  • Leeat Yariv

Abstract

We provide a framework for analyzing search across correlated samples. The agent—a mineral prospecting team, a drug company, a politician—tracks observations over a Brownian path. The agent chooses the search speed and retrospectively picks the best observation when deciding to complete the search. We show that the optimal search speed is U-shaped: it is highest when approaching a breakthrough or when nearing search termination. Unlike search across independent samples, search optimally stops when observations are sufficiently discouraging, following a drawdown stopping boundary. We also show the tractability and features of optimal search contracts in our setting.

Suggested Citation

  • Can Urgun & Leeat Yariv, 2025. "Contiguous Search: Exploration and Ambition on Uncharted Terrain," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 133(2), pages 522-567.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/732889
    DOI: 10.1086/732889
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