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Bidding and Drilling under Uncertainty: An Empirical Analysis of Contingent Payment Auctions

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  • Vivek Bhattacharya
  • Andrey Ordin
  • James W. Roberts

Abstract

Auctions are often used to sell assets whose future cash flows require the winner to make postauction investments. When winners’ payments are contingent on these cash flows, auction design can influence both bidding and incentives to exert effort after the auction. We propose a model of contingent payment auctions that links auction design to postauction economic activity. In the context of oil leases in the Permian Basin, we show that moral hazard affects the relative revenue ranking of different auction designs. Among a large class of alternatives, the observed design cannot be changed to increase both revenues and drilling rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Vivek Bhattacharya & Andrey Ordin & James W. Roberts, 2022. "Bidding and Drilling under Uncertainty: An Empirical Analysis of Contingent Payment Auctions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(5), pages 1319-1363.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/718916
    DOI: 10.1086/718916
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Nicholas Ryan, 2020. "Holding Up Green Energy," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2294, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Yunmi Kong, 2020. "Not knowing the competition: evidence and implications for auction design," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 51(3), pages 840-867, September.
    3. Zachary Breig & Allan Hernández-Chanto & Declan Hunt, 2022. "Experimental Auctions with Securities," Discussion Papers Series 657, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.
    4. Lamy, Laurent & Patnam, Manasa & Visser, Michael, 2023. "Distinguishing incentive from selection effects in auction-determined contracts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 1172-1202.
    5. Jin, Chuqing, 2024. "Does Competition Between Experts Improve Information Quality: Evidence from the Security Analyst Market," TSE Working Papers 24-1553, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    6. Janssen, Aljoscha, 2022. "Innovation Begets Innovation and Concentration: The Case of Upstream Oil & Gas in the North Sea," Working Paper Series 1431, Research Institute of Industrial Economics.
    7. Michele Fioretti & Alessandro Iaria & Aljoscha Janssen & Robert K Perrons & Clément Mazet-Sonilhac, 2022. "Innovation Begets Innovation and Concentration: the Case of Upstream Oil & Gas in the North Sea," SciencePo Working papers hal-03791971, HAL.
    8. Wenzheng Gao & Daiqiang Zhang & Naibao Zhao, 2021. "Uncertainty In Procurement Contracting With Time Incentives," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1153-1197, August.
    9. Laurent Lamy & Manasa Patnam & Michael Visser, 2023. "Distinguishing incentive from selection effects in auction-determined contracts," Post-Print hal-04382099, HAL.
    10. Jyh-Bang Jou & Charlene Tan Lee, 2023. "Design of the contingent royalty rate as related to the type of investment," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-25, December.

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