IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/jpolec/doi10.1086-717043.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Mortgage Rate Conundrum

Author

Listed:
  • Alejandro Justiniano
  • Giorgio E. Primiceri
  • Andrea Tambalotti

Abstract

We study the interest rates of privately securitized residential mortgages during the credit boom of the early 2000s. They reveal a sharp and persistent drop in the spread between mortgage and Treasury rates starting in the summer of 2003. The emergence of this mortgage rate conundrum immediately followed the collapse of an unprecedented refinancing wave, and it was more pronounced in the regions where that wave had grown faster. These same areas also experienced more originations of the nonconforming mortgages that boosted private label securitization after 2003. Mortgages originated after this shift are the first to show signs of deteriorating quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2022. "The Mortgage Rate Conundrum," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 130(1), pages 121-156.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/717043
    DOI: 10.1086/717043
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/717043
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.
    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/717043
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1086/717043?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2017. "Fraudulent Income Overstatement on Mortgage Applications During the Credit Expansion of 2002 to 2005," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(6), pages 1832-1864.
    2. Scanlon, Kathleen & Fernández Arrigoitia, Melissa & Whitehead, Christine M E, 2015. "Social housing in Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 62938, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    3. Christopher L. Foote & Kristopher Gerardi & Paul S. Willen, 2012. "Why did so many people make so many ex post bad decisions? the causes of the foreclosure crisis," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2012-07, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    4. John B. Taylor, 2007. "Housing and monetary policy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 463-476.
    5. Tim Landvoigt & Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider, 2015. "The Housing Market(s) of San Diego," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 105(4), pages 1371-1407, April.
    6. Bernanke, B.S., 2011. "International capital flows and the returns to safe assets in the United States 2003-2007," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 15, pages 13-26, February.
    7. Monika Piazzesi & Martin Schneider & Johannes Stroebel, 2020. "Segmented Housing Search," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(3), pages 720-759, March.
    8. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2009. "The Consequences of Mortgage Credit Expansion: Evidence from the U.S. Mortgage Default Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1449-1496.
    9. Benjamin J. Keys & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru & Vikrant Vig, 2012. "Mortgage Financing in the Housing Boom and Bust," NBER Chapters, in: Housing and the Financial Crisis, pages 143-204, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2012. "Credit Spreads and Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1692-1720, June.
    11. Tano Santos, 2015. "Credit booms: implications for the public and the private sector," BIS Working Papers 481, Bank for International Settlements.
    12. Un-Habitat, 2015. "Housing Finance Mechanisms in India," Working Papers id:7549, eSocialSciences.
    13. Hyun Song Shin, 2012. "Global Banking Glut and Loan Risk Premium," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 60(2), pages 155-192, July.
    14. Martin Schneider, 2015. "Comment on "Demystifying the Chinese Housing Boom"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2015, Volume 30, pages 167-175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Herring, Richard, 2011. "The Capital Conundrum," Working Papers 11-70, University of Pennsylvania, Wharton School, Weiss Center.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrea Ferrero & Richard Harrison & Benjamin Nelson, 2024. "House Price Dynamics, Optimal LTV Limits and the Liquidity Trap," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(2), pages 940-971.
    2. Piazzesi, M. & Schneider, M., 2016. "Housing and Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1547-1640, Elsevier.
    3. Anatoli Segura & Alonso Villacorta, 2020. "Demand for safety, risky loans: A model of securitization," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1260, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    4. Alejandro Justiniano & Giorgio E. Primiceri & Andrea Tambalotti, 2013. "The Effects of the Saving and Banking Glut on the U.S. Economy," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2013, pages 52-67, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Rojas, Alejandro, 2021. "Mortgage credit growth for lower-income borrowers during the 2000s housing boom: Evidence and implications," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 220-233.
    6. Adam M Guren & Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2021. "Housing Wealth Effects: The Long View," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(2), pages 669-707.
    7. Yavuz Arslan & Bulent Guler & Burhan Kuruscu, 2020. "Credit supply driven boom-bust cycles," BIS Working Papers 885, Bank for International Settlements.
    8. Punzi, Maria Teresa & Kauko, Karlo, 2015. "Testing the global banking glut hypothesis," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 19(C), pages 128-151.
    9. Christopher L Foote & Lara Loewenstein & Paul S Willen, 2021. "Cross-Sectional Patterns of Mortgage Debt during the Housing Boom: Evidence and Implications," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(1), pages 229-259.
    10. André K. Anundsen, 2019. "Detecting Imbalances in House Prices: What Goes Up Must Come Down?," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 121(4), pages 1587-1619, October.
    11. Conklin, James N. & Frame, W. Scott & Gerardi, Kristopher & Liu, Haoyang, 2022. "Villains or scapegoats? The role of subprime borrowers in driving the U.S. housing boom," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    12. Segura, Anatoli & Villacorta, Alonso, 2023. "The paradox of safe asset creation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 210(C).
    13. Greg Howard & Jack Liebersohn, 2023. "Regional Divergence and House Prices," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 49, pages 312-350, July.
    14. Davis, Morris A. & Van Nieuwerburgh, Stijn, 2015. "Housing, Finance, and the Macroeconomy," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 753-811, Elsevier.
    15. Christopher L. Foote & Lara Loewenstein & Paul S. Willen, 2018. "Technological Innovation in Mortgage Underwriting and the Growth in Credit: 1985-2015," Working Papers (Old Series) 1816, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    16. Menno, Dominik & Oliviero, Tommaso, 2020. "Financial intermediation, house prices, and the welfare effects of the U.S. Great Recession," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).
    17. Giancarlo Bertocco, 2014. "Global Saving Glut and Housing Bubble: A Critical Analysis," Economia politica, Società editrice il Mulino, issue 2, pages 195-218.
    18. Itzhak Ben-David & Pascal Towbin & Sebastian Weber, 2019. "Inferring Expectations from Observables: Evidence from the Housing Market," NBER Working Papers 25702, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Nadav Ben Zeev, 2019. "Adjustable-Rate Mortgages, Systematic Monetary Policy, And The Root Cause Of The Financial Crisis," Working Papers 1908, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Department of Economics.
    20. Hollander, Hylton & Liu, Guangling, 2016. "Credit spread variability in the U.S. business cycle: The Great Moderation versus the Great Recession," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 37-52.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/717043. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journals Division (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/JPE .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.