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Feasible Joint Posterior Beliefs

Author

Listed:
  • Itai Arieli
  • Yakov Babichenko
  • Fedor Sandomirskiy
  • Omer Tamuz

Abstract

We study the set of possible joint posterior belief distributions of a group of agents who share a common prior regarding a binary state and who observe some information structure. For two agents, we introduce a quantitative version of Aumann’s agreement theorem and show that it is equivalent to a characterization of feasible distributions from a 1995 work by Dawid and colleagues. For any number of agents, we characterize feasible distributions in terms of a “no-trade” condition. We use these characterizations to study information structures with independent posteriors. We also study persuasion problems with multiple receivers, exploring the extreme feasible distributions.

Suggested Citation

  • Itai Arieli & Yakov Babichenko & Fedor Sandomirskiy & Omer Tamuz, 2021. "Feasible Joint Posterior Beliefs," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(9), pages 2546-2594.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/714993
    DOI: 10.1086/714993
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    Cited by:

    1. P. Jean-Jacques Herings & Dominik Karos & Toygar T. Kerman, 2024. "Belief inducibility and informativeness," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 96(4), pages 517-553, June.
    2. Itai Arieli & Yakov Babichenko & Fedor Sandomirskiy, 2022. "Bayesian Persuasion with Mediators," Papers 2203.04285, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2022.
    3. Kevin He & Fedor Sandomirskiy & Omer Tamuz, 2021. "Private Private Information," Papers 2112.14356, arXiv.org, revised Sep 2024.
    4. Xu Lang, 2023. "A Belief-Based Characterization of Reduced-Form Auctions," Papers 2307.04070, arXiv.org.
    5. Arieli, Itai & Babichenko, Yakov, 2024. "A population's feasible posterior beliefs," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 215(C).

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