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Uncertainty Aversion and Systemic Risk

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  • David L. Dicks
  • Paolo Fulghieri

Abstract

We propose a new theory of systemic risk based on Knightian uncertainty (“ambiguity”). Because of uncertainty aversion, bad news on one asset class worsens investors’ expectations on other asset classes, so that idiosyncratic risk creates contagion, snowballing into systemic risk. In a Diamond and Dybvig setting, uncertainty-averse investors are less prone to run individual banks, but runs can be systemic and are associated with stock market crashes and flight to quality. Finally, increasing uncertainty makes the financial system more fragile and more prone to crises. Implications for the current public policy debate on management of financial crisis are derived.

Suggested Citation

  • David L. Dicks & Paolo Fulghieri, 2019. "Uncertainty Aversion and Systemic Risk," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(3), pages 1118-1155.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jpolec:doi:10.1086/701356
    DOI: 10.1086/701356
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    Cited by:

    1. Takashi Ui, 2023. "Strategic Ambiguity in Global Games," Papers 2303.12263, arXiv.org, revised Nov 2024.
    2. Liu, Yulin & Wang, Junbo & Wen, Fenghua & Wu, Chunchi, 2024. "Climate policy uncertainty and bank systemic risk: A creative destruction perspective," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    3. Burbano-Figueroa, Oscar & Sierra-Monroy, Alexandra & David-Hinestroza, Adriana & Whitney, Cory & Borgemeister, Christian & Luedeling, Eike, 2022. "Farm-planning under risk: An application of decision analysis and portfolio theory for the assessment of crop diversification strategies in horticultural systems," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    4. Yang, Lu & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2021. "Systemic risk and economic policy uncertainty: International evidence from the crude oil market," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 142-158.
    5. Beibei Zhang & Xuemei Xie & Chunmei Li, 2023. "How Connected Is China’s Systemic Financial Risk Contagion Network?—A Dynamic Network Perspective Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(10), pages 1-19, May.
    6. Driouchi, Tarik & So, Raymond H.Y. & Trigeorgis, Lenos, 2020. "Investor ambiguity, systemic banking risk and economic activity: The case of too-big-to-fail," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    7. Huang, Xiaowei & He, Chenyu & Zhang, Man, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainty and capital flows' tail risk in China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    8. Takashi Ui, 2021. "Strategic Ambiguity in Global Games," Working Papers on Central Bank Communication 032, University of Tokyo, Graduate School of Economics.
    9. Adoukonou, Olivier & André, Florence & Viviani, Jean-Laurent, 2021. "The determinants of the convertible bonds call policy of Western European companies," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    10. Christoph Bühren & Fabian Meier & Marco Pleßner, 2023. "Ambiguity aversion: bibliometric analysis and literature review of the last 60 years," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 73(2), pages 495-525, June.
    11. Yang Hao, 2023. "Financial Market with Learning from Price under Knightian Uncertainty," Working Papers hal-03686748, HAL.
    12. Guillemin, François, 2020. "Governance by depositors, bank runs and ambiguity aversion," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    13. Li, Yueshan & Chen, Shoudong & Sensoy, Ahmet & Wang, Lu, 2024. "Over-expected shocks and financial market security: Evidence from China's markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    14. Cheng-Ben Wang & Qian Zhong, 2023. "RETRACTED ARTICLE: International market risk, monetary policy stance, and corporate financing: China’s economic recovery in the post-pandemic era," Journal of Combinatorial Optimization, Springer, vol. 46(1), pages 1-37, August.
    15. Fulghieri, Paolo & Dicks, David, 2021. "Uncertainty, Contracting, and Beliefs in Organizations," CEPR Discussion Papers 15378, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. Pham, Son D. & Nguyen, Thao T.T. & Do, Hung X., 2024. "Impact of climate policy uncertainty on return spillover among green assets and portfolio implications," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    17. Wang, Bo, 2022. "Ambiguity aversion and amplification of financial crisis," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    18. Wang, Xinya & Xu, Xin & Rong, Xueyun & Xuan, Siyuan, 2024. "Identification of the contagion effect in China's financial market uncertainties: A multiscale and dynamic perspective," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1340-1362.
    19. Christis Katsouris, 2023. "Estimation and Inference in Threshold Predictive Regression Models with Locally Explosive Regressors," Papers 2305.00860, arXiv.org, revised May 2023.
    20. Xiaoyang Chen & Liguo Zhou & Lin Wang & Yuelong Zheng, 2023. "Risk spillover in China’s real estate industry chain: a DCC-EGARCH-ΔCoVaR model," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 10(1), pages 1-16, December.
    21. Louis RAFFESTIN, 2021. "Uncertainty as a vector of financial contagion: how does it work, and how much does it matter?," LEO Working Papers / DR LEO 2881, Orleans Economics Laboratory / Laboratoire d'Economie d'Orleans (LEO), University of Orleans.

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