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The Information Content of Short Interest: A Natural Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Tom Arnold

    (E. Claiborne Robins School of Business, University of Richmond)

  • Alexander W. Butler

    (University of Texas at Dallas)

  • Timothy Falcon Crack

    (University of Otago)

  • Yan Zhang

    (State University of New York, Binghamton)

Abstract

An increase in the cost of selling short should increase the bearish information content of short interest announcements by driving relatively uninformed short sellers out of the market. We extend the Diamond and Verrecchia (1987) model to include short selling against the box and test the extended model using a natural experiment based around the Taxpayer Relief Act of 1997 (TRA97). TRA97 made short selling more costly for those shorting against the box. Consistent with the implications of our extended model, this increase in short-selling costs strengthens the negative relationship between short interest and subsequent stock price performance post TRA97.

Suggested Citation

  • Tom Arnold & Alexander W. Butler & Timothy Falcon Crack & Yan Zhang, 2005. "The Information Content of Short Interest: A Natural Experiment," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(4), pages 1307-1336, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:78:y:2005:i:4:p:1307-1336
    DOI: 10.1086/430861
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Benjamin Blau & Matthew Hill & Hao Wang, 2011. "REIT Short Sales and Return Predictability," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 42(4), pages 481-503, May.
    2. Blau, Benjamin M. & Wade, Chip, 2012. "Informed or speculative: Short selling analyst recommendations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 14-25.
    3. Hackney, John & Henry, Tyler R. & Koski, Jennifer L., 2020. "Arbitrage vs. informed short selling: Evidence from convertible bond issuers," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Duan, Ying & Hu, Gang & McLean, R. David, 2010. "Costly arbitrage and idiosyncratic risk: Evidence from short sellers," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 564-579, October.
    5. Choi, Darwin & Getmansky, Mila & Tookes, Heather, 2009. "Convertible bond arbitrage, liquidity externalities, and stock prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 227-251, February.
    6. Zhu, Zhaobo & Duan, Xinrui & Sun, Licheng & Tu, Jun, 2019. "Momentum and reversal: The role of short selling," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 95-110.
    7. Pedro A.C. Saffi & Carles Vergara‐Alert, 2020. "The Big Short: Short Selling Activity and Predictability in House Prices," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1030-1073, December.
    8. Dagmar Linnertová, 2016. "Testing of Short Sale Hypotheses on the U.S. Market in the Period from 1990 to 2015," Acta Universitatis Agriculturae et Silviculturae Mendelianae Brunensis, Mendel University Press, vol. 64(6), pages 2025-2038.
    9. Blau, Benjamin M. & Fuller, Kathleen P. & Van Ness, Robert A., 2011. "Short selling around dividend announcements and ex-dividend days," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 628-639, June.
    10. Blau, Benjamin M. & Tew, Philip L., 2014. "Short sales and class-action lawsuits," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 79-100.
    11. Shyu, Yih-Wen & Chan, Kam C. & Liang, Hsin-Yu, 2018. "Spillovers of price efficiency and informed trading from short sales to margin purchases in absence of uptick rule," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 163-183.
    12. Hae Mi Choi, 2020. "Short‐sale constraints and informational efficiency to private information: A natural experiment," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 625-643, November.
    13. G—mez Mart’nez, Raœl & Paule Vianes, Jessica & Martínez Naval—n, Juan Gabriel, 2018. "Eficacia de las prohibiciones de las ventas en corto en Espa–a || Effectiveness of Short Sales Bans in Spain," Revista de Métodos Cuantitativos para la Economía y la Empresa = Journal of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, Universidad Pablo de Olavide, Department of Quantitative Methods for Economics and Business Administration, vol. 26(1), pages 250-268, Diciembre.
    14. Chung, Chune Young & Liu, Chang & Wang, Kainan, 2021. "The big picture: The industry effect of short interest," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    15. Blau, Benjamin M. & Van Ness, Robert A. & Warr, Richard S., 2012. "Short selling of ADRs and foreign market short-sale constraints," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 886-897.
    16. Ethan Watson & Mary C. Funck, 2012. "A cloudy day in the market: short selling behavioural bias or trading strategy," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(3), pages 238-255, June.
    17. Blau, Benjamin M. & Pinegar, J. Michael, 2013. "Are short sellers incrementally informed prior to earnings announcements?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 142-155.
    18. Franzoni, Francesco & Di Maggio, Marco & Massa, Massimo & Tubaldi, Roberto, 2019. "Strategic Trading as a Response to Short Sellers," CEPR Discussion Papers 13812, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Blau, Benjamin M. & Van Ness, Bonnie F. & Van Ness, Robert A., 2011. "Information in short selling: Comparing Nasdaq and the NYSE," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-10, January.
    20. Gibbs, Michael & Hao, (Grace) Qing, 2018. "Short selling around the expiration of IPO share lockups," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 30-43.
    21. Benjamin Blau, 2013. "Informed short sales and option introductions," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 365-382, August.
    22. Chip Wade & Andre Liebenberg & Benjamin M. Blau, 2016. "Information and Insurer Financial Strength Ratings: Do Short Sellers Anticipate Ratings Changes?," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(2), pages 475-500, June.
    23. Blau, Benjamin M. & Van Ness, Bonnie F. & Van Ness, Robert A., 2009. "Information and trade sizes: The case of short sales," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 1371-1388, November.
    24. Daniel Dupuis & Lawrence Kryzanowski, "undated". "Governance and Short Sales," Finance Working Papers 03-04/2015, School of Business Administration, American University of Sharjah.

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