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The Predictability of Aggregate Stock Market Returns: Evidence Based on Glamour Stocks

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  • Venkat R. Eleswarapu

    (Southern Methodist University)

Abstract

We find that annual excess returns on the stock market index are negatively related to the returns of glamour stocks in the previous 36-month period. In contrast, neither returns of value stocks nor aggregate stock market returns, purged of glamour stock effects, have any predictive power. In addition, the excess returns on the aggregate market are negatively skewed when the prior returns of glamour stocks are high. Finally, the inclusion of term premium, default premium, aggregate dividend yield, and the consumption-to-wealth ratio (CAY) as control variables do not materially alter the predictive power of prior glamour stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Venkat R. Eleswarapu, 2004. "The Predictability of Aggregate Stock Market Returns: Evidence Based on Glamour Stocks," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(2), pages 275-294, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:77:y:2004:i:2:p:275-294
    DOI: 10.1086/381275
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    Cited by:

    1. Miguel Antón & Christopher Polk, 2014. "Connected Stocks," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(3), pages 1099-1127, June.
    2. Michail Koubouros & Dimitrios Malliaropulos & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2010. "Long-run cash flow and discount-rate risks in the cross-section of US returns," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(3), pages 227-244.
    3. Doron Sonsino & Tal Shavit, 2014. "Return prediction and stock selection from unidentified historical data," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 641-655, April.
    4. John Y. Campbell & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2004. "Bad Beta, Good Beta," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(5), pages 1249-1275, December.
    5. Jakub W. Jurek & Luis M. Viceira, 2011. "Optimal Value and Growth Tilts in Long-Horizon Portfolios," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 15(1), pages 29-74.
    6. Michail Koubouros & Ekaterini Panopoulou, 2007. "Intertemporal Market Risks and the Cross–Section of Greek Average Returns," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 6(2), pages 203-227, May.
    7. John Y. Campbell & Christopher Polk & Tuomo Vuolteenaho, 2010. "Growth or Glamour? Fundamentals and Systematic Risk in Stock Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 305-344, January.
    8. John Y. Campbell, 2008. "Viewpoint: Estimating the equity premium," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(1), pages 1-21, February.
    9. Brennan, M.J. & Taylor, Alex P., 2023. "Expected returns and risk in the stock market," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 276-300.
    10. Jiang, Danling, 2006. "Investor Overreaction, Cross-Sectional Dispersion of Firm Valuations, and Expected Stock Returns," Working Paper Series 2006-8, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    11. Edward J. Lusk & Michael HALPERIN & Li Yue, 2006. "A Behavioural Finance Explanation of a Gearing-ß Inverse Association Referencing Weill’s Liquidity Result (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 56(3-4), pages 168-177, March.
    12. Jiang, Xiaoquan & Zaman, Mir A., 2010. "Aggregate insider trading: Contrarian beliefs or superior information?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1225-1236, June.
    13. Eleswarapu, Venkat R. & Thompson, Rex, 2007. "Testing for negative expected market return premia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1755-1770, June.
    14. Lieven Baele & Pilar Soriano, 2010. "The determinants of increasing equity market comovement: economic or financial integration?," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 146(3), pages 573-589, September.
    15. Degenhardt, Thomas & Auer, Benjamin R., 2018. "The “Sell in May” effect: A review and new empirical evidence," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 169-205.
    16. Noman, Abdullah & Naka, Atsuyuki & Zirek, Duygu, 2017. "Examining return predictability of industry style portfolios with prior return relative to a benchmark," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 193-203.
    17. Guo, Hui & Savickas, Robert, 2010. "Relation between time-series and cross-sectional effects of idiosyncratic variance on stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1637-1649, July.
    18. Jiang, Junhua, 2017. "Discount rate or cash flow contagion? Evidence from the recent financial crises," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 315-326.
    19. John Y. Campbell, 2007. "Estimating the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 13423, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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