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Insurance Cycles: Interest Rates and the Capacity Constraint Model

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  • Doherty, Neil A
  • Garven, James R

Abstract

Insurance profits exhibit cyclical behavior that has been attributed to capital market constraints. The authors show that changes in interest rates simultaneously affect the insurer's capital structure and the equilibrium underwriting profit. Depending upon asset and liability maturity structure, capital market access, and reinsurance availability, insurers will be differently affected by changing interest rates. The authors find that the average market response to changing interest rates roughly tracks market clearing prices. These 'cyclical' effects are enhanced for firms with mismatched assets and liabilities and more costly access to new capital and reinsurance. This evidence supports the capacity constraint hypothesis. Copyright 1995 by University of Chicago Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Doherty, Neil A & Garven, James R, 1995. "Insurance Cycles: Interest Rates and the Capacity Constraint Model," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 68(3), pages 383-404, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:68:y:1995:i:3:p:383-404
    DOI: 10.1086/296669
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    Cited by:

    1. David L. Dicks & James R. Garven, 2022. "Asymmetric information and insurance cycles," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 89(2), pages 449-474, June.
    2. Soon-Ja Lee & Michael L. Smith, "undated". "Property-Casualty Insurance Guaranty Funds and Insurer Vulnerability to Misfortune," Research in Financial Economics 9506, Ohio State University.
    3. Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2003. "Terrorisme à grande échelle partage de risques et politiques publiques," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 113(5), pages 625-648.
    4. Van Son Lai & Xueying Zhang, 2013. "On the Value of Municipal Bond Insurance: An Empirical Analysis," Financial Markets, Institutions & Instruments, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(4), pages 209-228, November.
    5. Faith R. Neale & Kevin L. Eastman & Pamela Peterson Drake, 2009. "Dynamics of the Market for Medical Malpractice Insurance," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 221-247, March.
    6. Luciano, Elisa & Rochet, Jean Charles, 2022. "The fluctuations of insurers’ risk appetite," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    7. Strauss, Jason, 2007. "Equilibrium in the Insurance Industry: Price and Probability of Insolvency," MPRA Paper 11015, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Seungmook Choi & Don Hardigree & Paul D. Thistle, 2002. "The Property/Liability Insurance Cycle: A Comparison of Alternative Models," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 68(3), pages 530-548, January.
    9. Soon-Jae Lee & Michael L. Smith, "undated". "Property-Casualty Insurance Guaranty Funds And Insurer Vulnerability To Misfortune," Research in Financial Economics 9616, Ohio State University.
    10. Catherine Bruneau & Nadia Sghaier, 2008. "Les cycles de souscription de l’assurance non vie en France," Working Papers hal-04140756, HAL.
    11. Elisa Luciano & Jean Charles Rochet, 2021. "Risk Appetite Fluctuations in the Insurance Industry," Carlo Alberto Notebooks 666 JEL Classification: G, Collegio Carlo Alberto.
    12. Patricia H. Born & Barbara Klimaszewski-Blettner, 2013. "Should I Stay or Should I Go? The Impact of Natural Disasters and Regulation on U.S. Property Insurers’ Supply Decisions," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 80(1), pages 1-36, March.
    13. Lee, Soon-Jae & Smith, Michael L., 1999. "Property-casualty insurance guaranty funds and insurer vulnerability to misfortune," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 23(9), pages 1437-1456, September.
    14. Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan & Nicola Ranger, 2013. "Insuring future climate catastrophes," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 339-354, May.
    15. Koen van der Veer, 2015. "Loss shocks and the quantity and price of private export credit insurance: Evidence from a global insurer," DNB Working Papers 462, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
    16. Ana M. Reyna & Hugo J. Fuentes & José A. Núñez, 2022. "Response of Mexican life and non-life insurers to the low interest rate environment," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 47(2), pages 409-433, April.
    17. Annette Hofmann & Cristina Sattarhoff, 2023. "Underwriting Cycles in Property-Casualty Insurance: The Impact of Catastrophic Events," Risks, MDPI, vol. 11(4), pages 1-25, April.
    18. Tarasov, Arthur, 2013. "Impact of interest rates on the decision to insure in agricultural production," Studies in Agricultural Economics, Research Institute for Agricultural Economics, vol. 115(1), pages 1-7, February.
    19. Marc A. Ragin & Martin Halek, 2016. "Market Expectations Following Catastrophes: An Examination of Insurance Broker Returns," Journal of Risk & Insurance, The American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 83(4), pages 849-876, December.
    20. Jan Janku & Ondrej Badura, 2021. "Non-linear Effects of Market Concentration on the Underwriting Profitability of the Non-life Insurance Sector in Europe," Working Papers 2021/9, Czech National Bank.
    21. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chi-Hung, 2015. "Financial policy and insurance development: Do financial reforms matter and how?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 258-278.
    22. Jiang, Shi-jie & Nieh, Chien-Chung, 2012. "Dynamics of underwriting profits: Evidence from the U.S. insurance market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1-15.
    23. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Huang, Wei-Ling & Yin, Chun-Hao, 2013. "The dynamic interactions among the stock, bond and insurance markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 28-52.

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