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A Compound Option Model of Production and Intermediate Inventories

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  • Cortazar, Gonzalo
  • Schwartz, Eduardo S

Abstract

This article extends the option approach to valuing real assets by modeling the firm as a two-stage process with bounded output rates, in which the output of the first stage may be held as work-in-process. In this setting, the real asset becomes a compound option, which, if exercised, gives the option to finish the work-in-process and sell the output as its final payoff. The existence of intermediate inventories may arise as an optimal investment strategy for exploiting possible future price increases. The framework allows us to analyze the effect of uncertainty on output rates and the effect of interest rates changes on inventory levels. Copyright 1993 by University of Chicago Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Cortazar, Gonzalo & Schwartz, Eduardo S, 1993. "A Compound Option Model of Production and Intermediate Inventories," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(4), pages 517-540, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:66:y:1993:i:4:p:517-40
    DOI: 10.1086/296616
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    Cited by:

    1. José Balibrea-Iniesta, 2020. "Economic Analysis of Renewable Energy Regulation in France: A Case Study for Photovoltaic Plants Based on Real Options," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(11), pages 1-19, June.
    2. Bai, Yang & Meng, Jie & Meng, Fanyi & Fang, Guochang, 2020. "Stochastic analysis of a shale gas investment strategy for coping with production uncertainties," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    3. Armstrong, Margaret & Langrené, Nicolas & Petter, Renato & Chen, Wen & Petter, Carlos, 2019. "Accounting for tailings dam failures in the valuation of mining projects," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    4. Boomsma, Trine Krogh & Meade, Nigel & Fleten, Stein-Erik, 2012. "Renewable energy investments under different support schemes: A real options approach," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 220(1), pages 225-237.
    5. Jos Balibrea-Iniesta & Antonio S nchez-Soli o & Antonio Lara-Galera, 2015. "Application of Real Options Theory to the Assessment of Public Incentives for Onshore Wind Energy Development in Spain," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(3), pages 791-800.
    6. Lee, Meng-Yu & Yeh, Fang-Bo & Chen, An-Pin, 2008. "The generalized sequential compound options pricing and sensitivity analysis," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 38-54, January.
    7. Reus, Lorenzo & Pagnoncelli, Bernardo & Armstrong, Margaret, 2019. "Better management of production incidents in mining using multistage stochastic optimization," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 1-1.
    8. Max F. Schöne & Stefan Spinler, 2017. "A four-factor stochastic volatility model of commodity prices," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 135-165, July.
    9. Liu, Yu-hong & Jiang, I-Ming & Hsu, Wei-tze, 2018. "Compound option pricing under a double exponential Jump-diffusion model," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 30-53.
    10. Yepes Rodri­guez, Ramón, 2008. "Real option valuation of free destination in long-term liquefied natural gas supplies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1909-1932, July.
    11. Gonzalo Cortazar & Eduardo S. Schwartz & Marcelo Salinas, 1998. "Evaluating Environmental Investments: A Real Options Approach," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 44(8), pages 1059-1070, August.
    12. Yu-Lin Huang & Tsen-Chin Lin, 2023. "Compound deferrable options for the valuation of multi-stage infrastructure investment projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 41(8), pages 670-686, August.
    13. Carlos Andrés Zapata Quimbayo, 2020. "OPCIONES REALES Una guía teórico-práctica para la valoración de inversiones bajo incertidumbre mediante modelos en tiempo discreto y simulación de Monte Carlo," Books, Universidad Externado de Colombia, Facultad de Finanzas, Gobierno y Relaciones Internacionales, number 138, September.
    14. Spiros H. Martzoukos & Nayia Pospori & Lenos Trigeorgis, 2024. "Corporate investment decisions with switch flexibility, constraints, and path-dependency," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1223-1250, April.
    15. Steven Ott & W. Hughen & Dustin Read, 2012. "Optimal Phasing and Inventory Decisions for Large-Scale Residential Development Projects," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 45(4), pages 888-918, November.
    16. Chris Kenyon & Stathis Tompaidis, 2001. "Real Options in Leasing: The Effect of Idle Time," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 675-689, October.
    17. Cortazar, Gonzalo & Casassus, Jaime, 1998. "Optimal Timing of a Mine Expansion: Implementing a Real Options Model," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 755-769.
    18. María Luisa Saavedra García & Máximo Jorge Saavedra García & Deyanira Bernal Domínguez, 2013. "A foreign investment project of an autoparts firm: Real options versus financial valuation," Economía, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales (IIES). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Sociales. Universidad de Los Andes. Mérida, Venezuela, vol. 38(35), pages 127-156, January-J.
    19. Salvador Cruz Rambaud & Joaquín López Pascual & Juan Carlos Meléndez Rodríguez, 2021. "Sustainability in the Aerospace Sector, a Transition to Clean Energy: The E 2 -EVM Valuation Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(12), pages 1-17, June.

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