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The Dollars and Sense of Ballot Propositions: Estimating Willingness to Pay for Public Goods Using Aggregate Voting Data

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  • Jesse Burkhardt
  • Nathan W. Chan

Abstract

This paper develops a new approach for estimating willingness to pay (WTP) for public goods using referendum voting data, and we demonstrate the approach by applying it to a series of referenda in California spanning a wide array of public goods. We find a range of annual WTP values for successful propositions from $3.47 per person for children’s hospitals to $94.48 per person for transportation infrastructure and management. We also impute the per capita cost of each proposition. Comparing these imputed costs to our WTP measure allows us to infer the upper bound on prices that would still ensure passage of a successful measure. Conversely, this comparison provides an estimate of the decrease in prices that would have been necessary to ensure passage of unsuccessful propositions. In addition, we estimate the relative effects of prices, income, and ideology on the support for public goods. We show that both ideology and economic costs have significant impacts, which stands in contrast to previous work that contends that voting patterns are driven purely by fiscal costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Jesse Burkhardt & Nathan W. Chan, 2017. "The Dollars and Sense of Ballot Propositions: Estimating Willingness to Pay for Public Goods Using Aggregate Voting Data," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 4(2), pages 479-503.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jaerec:doi:10.1086/691592
    DOI: 10.1086/691592
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    Cited by:

    1. Epstein, Lucas & Muehlegger, Erich, 2024. "Ideology, Incidence and the Political Economy of Fuel Taxes: Evidence from California 2018 Proposition 6," Institute of Transportation Studies, Working Paper Series qt6k58771s, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Davis.
    2. Paul Mwebaze & Jeff Bennett & Nigel W. Beebe & Gregor J. Devine & Paul Barro, 2018. "Economic Valuation of the Threat Posed by the Establishment of the Asian Tiger Mosquito in Australia," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 71(2), pages 357-379, October.
    3. Soren Anderson & Ioana Marinescu & Boris Shor, 2023. "Can Pigou at the Polls Stop Us Melting the Poles?," Journal of the Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, University of Chicago Press, vol. 10(4), pages 903-945.
    4. Lang, Corey & Pearson-Merkowitz, Shanna, 2022. "Aggregate data yield biased estimates of voter preferences," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    5. Ling-Yun He & Hong-Zhen Zhang, 2021. "Spillover or crowding out? The effects of environmental regulation on residents’ willingness to pay for environmental protection," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(1), pages 611-630, January.
    6. Lang, Corey, 2018. "Assessing the efficiency of local open space provision," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 12-24.
    7. Shao, Shuai & Tian, Zhihua & Fan, Meiting, 2018. "Do the rich have stronger willingness to pay for environmental protection? New evidence from a survey in China," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 83-94.

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