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The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-2006: A Dynamic Factor Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Albrecht Ritschl

    (London School of Economics and CEPR)

  • Samad Sarferaz

    (ETH Zurich)

  • Martin Uebele

    (University of Groningen)

Abstract

We estimate a Stock/Watson index of economic activity to assess U.S. business cycle volatility since 1867. We replicate the Great Moderation of the 1980s and 1990s and find exceptionally low volatility also in the Golden Age of the 1960s. Postwar moderation relative to pre-1914 occurs under constant but not time-varying factor loadings, suggesting structural change toward more volatile sectors. For comparable series, the U.S. postwar business cycle was as volatile overall as under the Classical Gold Standard, but much less so during the Great Moderation and the Golden Age.

Suggested Citation

  • Albrecht Ritschl & Samad Sarferaz & Martin Uebele, 2016. "The U.S. Business Cycle, 1867-2006: A Dynamic Factor Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(1), pages 159-172, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:98:y:2016:i:1:p:159-172
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Potjagailo, Galina & Wolters, Maik H., 2023. "Global financial cycles since 1880," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 131(C).
    2. Green, Georgina, 2018. "Monetary policy spillovers in the first age of financial globalisation: a narrative VAR approach 1884–1913," Bank of England working papers 718, Bank of England.
    3. Pooyan Amir‐Ahmadi & Christian Matthes & Mu‐Chun Wang, 2016. "Drifts and volatilities under measurement error: Assessing monetary policy shocks over the last century," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(2), pages 591-611, July.
    4. Yan Liu & Quaner Wen & Abbas Ali Chandio & Long Chen & Lu Gan, 2022. "Investment Risk Analysis for Green and Sustainable Planning of Rural Family: A Case Study of Tibetan Region," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(19), pages 1-19, September.
    5. Albers, Thilo Nils Hendrik, 2018. "The prelude and global impact of the Great Depression: Evidence from a new macroeconomic dataset," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 150-163.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    U.S. business cycle; volatility; dynamic factor analysis; monetary policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • N11 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: Pre-1913
    • N12 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-

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