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Ipo Post-Issue Markets: Questionable Predilections But Diligent Learners?

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  • Peter Bossaerts
  • Pierre Hillion

Abstract

There appear to be no anomalies in the aftermarket of a sample of 4,848 U.S. IPOs over the period 1975 to 1995, except issues offered below $6. Risk is priced in the aftermarket in accordance with Rubinstein's asset-pricing model. Unlike under the efficient markets hypothesis (EMH), however, market priors about the probability of future default are not unbiased at the IPO date. Still, subsequent learning is rational: the market uses Bayes' law with a correct-likelihood function (of news given the eventual fate of an issue). That is, the hypothesis of an efficiently learning market (ELM) cannot be rejected. We produce direct evidence in support of these statements, based on a new class of tests. We also provide indirect evidence, by documenting a gradual convergence of IPO prices towards EMH as issues mature. © 2001 by the President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology

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  • Peter Bossaerts & Pierre Hillion, 2001. "Ipo Post-Issue Markets: Questionable Predilections But Diligent Learners?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(2), pages 333-347, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:83:y:2001:i:2:p:333-347
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    Cited by:

    1. Peter Bossaerts, 2001. "Experiments with Financial Markets: Implications for Asset Pricing Theory," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 45(1), pages 17-32, March.
    2. Yong, Othman, 2007. "A review of IPO research in Asia: What's next?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 253-275, June.
    3. Radu BORES & Ana-Maria HLACIUC, 2016. "The Economics And Implications Of An Intial Public Offering," EcoForum, "Stefan cel Mare" University of Suceava, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Public Administration - Economy, Business Administration and Tourism Department., vol. 5(2), pages 1-29, July.
    4. Ackert, Lucy F. & Church, Bryan K. & Zhang, Ping, 2004. "Asset prices and informed traders' abilities: Evidence from experimental asset markets," Accounting, Organizations and Society, Elsevier, vol. 29(7), pages 609-626, October.
    5. Chen, Anlin & Chiou, Sue L. & Wu, Chinshun, 2004. "Efficient learning under price limits: evidence from IPOs in Taiwan," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 85(3), pages 373-378, December.

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