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The Probability of Being President

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  • Crain, W Mark
  • Messenheimer, Harold C
  • Tollison, Robert D

Abstract

Economic models of politics typically use the expected value of a candidate's vote share to proxy electoral probability. In this paper, the authors introduce a risk calculation to augment the evaluation of a candidate's (or party's) expected vote share and they divide this risk element into its systematic and unsystematic components. For the same reason that systematic risk is a primary focus of portfolio management, the authors discover that an analogous systematic risk component is central to presidential elections. Their approach accounts for correlations in vote swings among states, piercing the fiction of a state-by-state or 'local' campaign strategy. Copyright 1993 by MIT Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Crain, W Mark & Messenheimer, Harold C & Tollison, Robert D, 1993. "The Probability of Being President," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 75(4), pages 683-689, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:75:y:1993:i:4:p:683-89
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Souren Soumbatiants & Henry Chappell & Eric Johnson, 2006. "Using state polls to forecast U.S. Presidential election outcomes," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 127(1), pages 207-223, April.
    2. Claus Beisbart & Stephan Hartmann, 2010. "Welfarist evaluations of decision rules under interstate utility dependencies," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 34(2), pages 315-344, February.
    3. Ilan Bruno Guimarães de Souza & Maurício Soares Bugarin, 2005. "Negociação Salarial Dos Servidores Públicos Federais: Uma Análise Sob A Ótica De Economia Política Positiva," Anais do XXXIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 33rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 054, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    4. Chris Cain & Peter Basciano & Ellen Cain, 2007. "The electoral college: diversification and the election process," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 21-34, March.
    5. Marcos Vizcaíno-González & Susana Iglesias-Antelo & Noelia Romero-Castro, 2019. "Assessing Sustainability-Related Systematic Reputational Risk through Voting Results in Corporate Meetings: A Cross-Industry Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-11, March.
    6. Rita de Cássia Libanio & Naércio Aquino de Menezes Filho, 2003. "Indicadores Sociais e Desempenho nas Eleições Estaduais," Anais do XXXI Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 31st Brazilian Economics Meeting] f34, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
    7. Richard Cebula & Michael Toma, 2006. "Preliminary Evidence on the Allocation of U.S. Army Deaths from Operation Iraqi Freedom," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 34(1), pages 3-14, March.
    8. Jennifer Merolla & Michael Munger & Michael Tofias, 2005. "In Play: A Commentary on Strategies in the 2004 U.S. Presidential Election," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 123(1), pages 19-37, April.
    9. Claus Beisbart & Luc Bovens, 2008. "A power measure analysis of Amendment 36 in Colorado," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 134(3), pages 231-246, March.

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