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The U.S. Budget Deficit and the Foreign Exchange Value of the Dollar

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  • Melvin, Michael
  • Schlagenhauf, Don
  • Talu, Ayhan

Abstract

This paper presents and estimates a simple model of real exchange rate determination that includes the expected future U.S. federal budget deficit as a determinant. The model is applied to the real value of the dollar versus the mark, yen, and pound over the period June 1974-October 1987. The estimates suggest that rapid increases in the expected future deficit in the early 1980s contributed to a rapid appreciation of the dollar. The fall in the value of the dollar in the spring of 1985 appears to be due to a fall in the expected budget deficit. Copyright 1989 by MIT Press.

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  • Melvin, Michael & Schlagenhauf, Don & Talu, Ayhan, 1989. "The U.S. Budget Deficit and the Foreign Exchange Value of the Dollar," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(3), pages 500-505, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:71:y:1989:i:3:p:500-505
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    Cited by:

    1. Philip Ifeakachukwu Nwosa, 2017. "Fiscal Policy and Exchange Rate Movement in Nigeria," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 13(3), pages 115-127, JUNE.
    2. Kitchen, John, 1996. "Domestic and international financial market responses to Federal deficit announcements," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 239-254, April.

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