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A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence from Controlled Settings

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  • Joshua B. Miller

    (University of Melbourne)

  • Adam Sanjurjo

    (Universidad de Alicante)

Abstract

The canonical hot hand fallacy result was recently reversed, based largely on a single statistic, and a data set that was underpowered for individual-level testing. Here we perform a more robust analysis, testing whether hot hand performance exists across (i) data sets: four different controlled shooting experiments, (ii) time: multiple sessions per individual spread across a six month gap, and (iii) various (improved) approaches to statistical testing. We find strong evidence of hot hand performance, both across data sets and within individuals across time. Moreover, in a study of beliefs, we find that expert observers can successfully predict which shooters get the hottest.

Suggested Citation

  • Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2024. "A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence from Controlled Settings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 106(6), pages 1607-1619, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:106:y:2024:i:6:p:1607-1619
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01280
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