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Exposure to the COVID-19 Stock Market Crash and Its Effect on Household Expectations

Author

Listed:
  • Tobin Hanspal

    (WU Vienna University of Economics and Business)

  • Annika Weber

    (Goethe University Frankfurt and Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE)

  • Johannes Wohlfart

    (University of Copenhagen, CESifo, and Danish Finance Institute)

Abstract

We survey a representative sample of U.S. households to study how exposure to the COVID-19 stock market crash affects expectations and planned behavior. Wealth shocks are associated with upward adjustments of expectations about retirement age, desired working hours, and household debt but have only small effects on expected spending. We provide correlational and experimental evidence that beliefs about the duration of the stock market recovery shape households' expectations about their own wealth and their planned investment decisions and labor market activity. Our findings shed light on the implications of household exposure to stock market crashes for expectation formation.

Suggested Citation

  • Tobin Hanspal & Annika Weber & Johannes Wohlfart, 2021. "Exposure to the COVID-19 Stock Market Crash and Its Effect on Household Expectations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 103(5), pages 994-1010, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:103:y:2021:i:5:p:994-1010
    DOI: 10.1162/rest_a_01011
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    Cited by:

    1. Link, Sebastian & Peichl, Andreas & Roth, Christopher & Wohlfart, Johannes, 2023. "Information frictions among firms and households," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 99-115.
    2. Heiner Mikosch & Christopher Roth & Samad Sarferaz & Johannes Wohlfart, 2024. "Uncertainty and Information Acquisition: Evidence from Firms and Households," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(2), pages 375-405, April.
    3. Christian Bayer & Benjamin Born & Ralph Luetticke & Gernot J Müller, 2023. "The Coronavirus Stimulus Package: How Large is the Transfer Multiplier," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 133(652), pages 1318-1347.
    4. Marco Pagano & Josef Zechner, 2022. "COVID-19 and Corporate Finance [The risk of being a fallen angel and the corporate dash for cash in the midst of COVID]," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 11(4), pages 849-879.
    5. Bossman, Ahmed & Umar, Zaghum & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "Modelling the asymmetric effect of COVID-19 on REIT returns: A quantile-on-quantile regression analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    6. Dietrich, Alexander M. & Kuester, Keith & Müller, Gernot J. & Schoenle, Raphael, 2022. "News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 35-51.
    7. Hackethal, Andreas & Hanspal, Tobin & Hartzmark, Samuel M. & Bräuer, Konstantin, 2024. "Educating investors about dividends," SAFE Working Paper Series 420, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    8. Pagano, Marco & Wagner, Christian & Zechner, Josef, 2023. "Disaster resilience and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    9. Chatterjee, Oindrila & Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal & Mohapatra, Sanket, 2024. "Gold in household portfolios during a pandemic: Evidence from India," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(PA), pages 1288-1306.
    10. Alistair Macaulay & James Moberly, 2022. "Heterogeneity in imperfect inflation expectations:theory and evidence from a novel survey," Economics Series Working Papers 970, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    11. Oindrila Chatterjee & Balagopal Gopalakrishnan & Sanket Mohapatra, 2023. "Gold in household portfolios during a pandemic: Evidence from an emerging economy," IIMA Working Papers WP 2023-06-01, Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad, Research and Publication Department.
    12. Xiangfa Li & Zhe Zhang & Weixian Xue & Hua Wang, 2022. "The Effects of Household Debt and Oil Price Shocks on Economic Growth in the Shadow of the Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(22), pages 1-16, November.
    13. Syed Abdul Rehman Khan & Danish Iqbal Godil & Munaza Bibi & Zhang Yu & Syed Muhammad Ahsan Rizvi, 2021. "The Economic and Social Impact of Teleworking in Romania: Present Practices and Post Pandemic Developments," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 23(58), pages 787-787, August.
    14. Huang, Bin & Wang, Bin & Chen, Zixuan, 2024. "Individual investment adaptations to COVID-19 lockdowns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    15. Lukas Menkhoff & Carsten Schröder, 2022. "Risky Asset Holdings During Covid‐19 and their Distributional Impact: Evidence from Germany," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 68(2), pages 497-517, June.
    16. Bei, Zeyun & Lin, Juan & Zhou, Yinggang, 2024. "No safe haven, only diversification and contagion — Intraday evidence around the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    17. Bocar A. Ba & Abdoulaye Ndiaye & Roman G. Rivera & Alexander Whitefield, 2024. "Mispricing Narratives after Social Unrest," Opportunity and Inclusive Growth Institute Working Papers 096, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
    18. Bui, Dzung & Dräger, Lena & Hayo, Bernd & Nghiem, Giang, 2023. "Macroeconomic expectations and consumer sentiment during the COVID-19 pandemic: The role of others’ beliefs," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).

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