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Trade Wars and the Disarray in the Global Trading System: Implications for the Philippines

Author

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  • Maria Joy V. Abrenica

    (University of the Philippines School of Economics Diliman, Quezon City 1101 Philippines)

  • Ricardo Rafael S. Guzman

    (University of the Philippines School of Economics Diliman, Quezon City 1101 Philippines)

  • Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista

    (University of the Philippines School of Economics Diliman, Quezon City 1101 Philippines)

Abstract

This study uses the Caliendo and Parro (2015) multi-sector, multi-country, general equilibrium Ricardian trade model with national and international input-output linkages to assess the impact on welfare of higher tariffs due to the U.S.–China trade war in the case of the Philippines. A sample of 65 countries including a constructed rest of the world is used, with 31 ICIO tradeable and non-tradeable sectors and 2015 as the base year. The constructed scenario is of the U.S.–China tariff tit-for-tat and retaliatory measures taken by Mexico, Canada, EU, Russia, and Turkey against the United States during 2018. The findings show that the Philippines and others in the sidelines could incur larger welfare losses than those directly involved in the conflict, in contrast with the sanguine prediction of other models.

Suggested Citation

  • Maria Joy V. Abrenica & Ricardo Rafael S. Guzman & Maria Socorro Gochoco-Bautista, 2019. "Trade Wars and the Disarray in the Global Trading System: Implications for the Philippines," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 18(3), pages 59-75, Fall.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:18:y:2019:i:3:p:59-75
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    Cited by:

    1. Jie Wu & Jacob Wood & Xianhai Huang, 2021. "How does GVC reconstruction affect economic growth and employment? Analysis of USA–China decoupling," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 35(1), pages 67-81, May.

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