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The Relationship between China's Export-led Growth and Its Double Transition of Demographic Change and Industrialization-super-∗

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  • Yang Yao

    (China Center for Economic Research (CCER) and National School of Development (NSD) Peking University No. 5, Yiheyuan Road, Beijing, 100871,)

Abstract

China's export-led growth is rooted in China's double transition of demographic transition and structural change from industrialization. Accession to the WTO has allowed China to fully integrate into the world system and capture the gains of its comparative advantage in abundant labor supply. Structural change has a dampening effect on the Balassa–Samuelson effect so as to sustain China's competiveness in the world market. The double transition will take 10 to 15 years to finish; in this time period, China will likely continue its fast export-led growth. Along the way, export-led growth has also created serious structural imbalances highlighted by underutilized savings, slow growth of residential income and domestic consumption, and a heavy reliance on investment. This linkage requires new thinking when global imbalances are to be tackled. © 2011 The Earth Institute at Columbia University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Suggested Citation

  • Yang Yao, 2011. "The Relationship between China's Export-led Growth and Its Double Transition of Demographic Change and Industrialization-super-∗," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 10(2), pages 52-76, Summer.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:asiaec:v:10:y:2011:i:2:p:52-76
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    Cited by:

    1. Haraguchi, Nobuya & Martorano, Bruno & Sanfilippo, Marco, 2019. "What factors drive successful industrialization? Evidence and implications for developing countries," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 266-276.
    2. Longfeng Ye & Peter E. Robertson, 2017. "Migration and Growth in China: A Sceptical Assessment of the Evidence," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 17-03, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    3. Françoise Lemoine & Deniz Ünal, 2012. "Scanning the Ups and Downs of China’s Trade Imbalances," Working Papers 2012-14, CEPII research center.
    4. Ye, Longfeng & Robertson, Peter E., 2019. "Hitting the Great Wall: Structural change and China's growth slowdown," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-1.

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