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L’Amplitude Du Cycle Economique Et De L’Ecart De Production Au Liban

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  • Jean-Francois VERNE

    (Universite Saint-Esprit de Kaslik, Liban)

Abstract

This article shows that the business cycle magnitude and the output gap strongly varied in the Lebanon between 1970 and 2008, the most important variations taking place from 1975 to 1990 corresponding to the period of the civil war. Nevertheless, a decrease in the discrepancy between these two indicators around the long-run trend can be observed since the beginning of 1990s. These reductions of the cyclic amplitude and output gap do not result from the end of the war in 1990 but rather from the general government final consumption expenditure and economic dependence rate. These two variables explain a mismatch between the observed GDP and the potential GP and consequently the occurrence of economic stability.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean-Francois VERNE, 2011. "L’Amplitude Du Cycle Economique Et De L’Ecart De Production Au Liban," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 34, pages 181-201.
    • Handle: RePEc:tou:journl:v:34:y:2011:p:181-201
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Édouard Challe, 2004. "Une décomposition du cycle boursier," Revue économique, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 55(3), pages 395-405.
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      Keywords

      ECART DE PRODUCTION; AMPLITUDE CYCLIQUE; CYCLE ECONOMIQUE; STABILITE ECONOMIQUE;
      All these keywords.

      JEL classification:

      • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
      • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
      • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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