IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tei/journl/v13y2020i2p7-18.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

FDIs and Commercial Balance in CEE Countries - Special Focus on the Manufacturing Economic Sectors. A VAR Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Radulescu Magdalena

    (University of Pitesti, Department of Finance, Accounting and Economics)

  • Cirstea Cornelia Gabriela

    (University "Lucian Blaga" of Sibiu, Department of Management, Marketing and Business Administration)

  • Belascu Lucian Aron

    (University "Lucian Blaga" of Sibiu, Department of Management, Marketing and Business Administration)

Abstract

Purpose: Some empirical findings of the role of foreign direct investment (FDIs) in a host country’s export performance was found by many researchers, since exports have been for a long time viewed as an engine of economic growth. But exports and imports are inter-correlated and some works proved that sometimes, the foreign-owned companies import more than they export in some economic sectors. The paper aims to establish the relation between total FDIs and the commercial balance (goods) and between FDI stocks in the manufacturing economic sectors and the commercial balance of manufactured goods in 11 Central and Eastern European countries during the crisis period and post-crisis period (2009-2018). We have tested the causality using Granger causality test to see if there is a uni-directional or bi-directional causality between those variables. We have tested for co-integration and we haven’t found a long-term relationship between those variables and we have applied the VAR technique. Our results have proved a bi-directional causality between FDI stock-exports-imports and a stronger impact of FDIs stock on the trade balance of manufactured goods than the impact of total FDI stock on the commercial balance of goods in CEE countries. Design/methodology/approach: Granger causality tests, cointegration test, VAR analysis. Finding: We have found no cointegration in the long-run between FDIs stocks and exports and imports in the CEE countries. We have found a bi-directional causality between those variables. We have found a stronger impact of FDIs stock on export and imports of manufactured goods than the impact of FDIs stock on total exports and imports in the CEE countries. Research limitations/implications: This research can be extended analysing a longer period of time and including more exogenous variables in the analysis such as labour productivity, labour cost and GDP growth. It can also be performed a panel analysis. The CEE countries should design adequate policies in order to attract more FDIs in the manufacturing sectors, given the strong impact of FDI stock for these sectors and given the large share of the manufactured goods of the total exports of the CEE countries. Originality/value: This research is important for CEE region because of the large share of the manufactured good of the total exports of these economies.

Suggested Citation

  • Radulescu Magdalena & Cirstea Cornelia Gabriela & Belascu Lucian Aron, 2020. "FDIs and Commercial Balance in CEE Countries - Special Focus on the Manufacturing Economic Sectors. A VAR Analysis," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 13(2), pages 7-18, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:tei:journl:v:13:y:2020:i:2:p:7-18
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://ijbesar.af.duth.gr/docs/volume13_issue2/13_02_01.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://ijbesar.af.duth.gr/volume13_issue2.php
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:lic:licosd:20208 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Gheorghe ZAMAN & Valentina VASILE & Mirela MATEI & Carmen CROITORU & George ENESCU, 2011. "Some challenging (macro)economic aspects of FDI in Romania," Romanian Journal of Economics, Institute of National Economy, vol. 33(2(42)), pages 21-58, December.
    3. Borensztein, E. & De Gregorio, J. & Lee, J-W., 1998. "How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth?1," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 115-135, June.
    4. Miloš Krstić, 2014. "Rational Choice Theory and Addiction Behaviour," Tržište/Market, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 26(2), pages 163-177.
    5. Dewa Gede Sidan Raeskyesa & Reinardus Adhiputra Suryandaru, 2020. "Competitiveness and FDI Inflows in ASEAN Member Countries," International Journal of Business and Economic Sciences Applied Research (IJBESAR), Democritus University of Thrace (DUTH), Kavala Campus, Greece, vol. 13(1), pages 14-20, April.
    6. Olivera Kostoska & Pece Mitrevski, 2008. "Estimating the FDI impact on economic growth and export performances of the european economies in transition," Revista Tinerilor Economisti (The Young Economists Journal), University of Craiova, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 1(11), pages 115-126, November.
    7. Rym Ayadi & Marek Dabrowski & Luc De Wulf (ed.), 2015. "Economic and Social Development of the Southern and Eastern Mediterranean Countries," Springer Books, Springer, edition 127, number 978-3-319-11122-3, April.
    8. Zakia Mishal & Ziad Abulaila, 2007. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment and Imports on Economic Growth: The Case of Jordan," Journal of Economic and Administrative Sciences, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 23(1), pages 1-31, June.
    9. Anton Jevcak & Ralph Setzer & Massimo Suardi, 2010. "Determinants of Capital Flows to the New EU Member States Before and During the Financial Crisis," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 425, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
    10. Hela Bouras & Bechir Raggad, 2015. "Foreign Direct Investment and Exports: Complementarity or Substitutability An Empirical Investigation," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 933-941.
    11. Oana Cristina POPOVICI, 2018. "The Impact of FDI on EU Export Performance in Manufacturing and Services. A Dynamic Panel Data Approach," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(1), pages 108-123, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Yongrong Xin & Aftab Hussain Tabasam & Zhenling Chen & Aysha Zamir & Carlos Samuel Ramos-Meza, 2024. "Analyzing the Impact of Foreign Direct Investment, Energy Consumption on Services Exports, and Growth of the Services Sector: Evidence from SAARC Countries," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(2), pages 5709-5728, June.
    2. Ines TROJETTE, 2016. "The Effect Of Foreign Direct Investment On Economic Growth: The Institutional Threshold," Region et Developpement, Region et Developpement, LEAD, Universite du Sud - Toulon Var, vol. 43, pages 111-138.
    3. Ramona Jimborean & Anna Kelber, 2017. "Foreign Direct Investment Drivers and Growth in Central and Eastern Europe in the Aftermath of the 2007 Global Financial Crisis," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 59(1), pages 23-54, March.
    4. Luma Al-Qudah & Barbara Piontek & Judit Olah, 2021. "Economic Growth and Foreign Direct Investment in the Context of Financial Development: Evidence from Jordan," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(2B), pages 762-782.
    5. Thomas Brasch & Ivan Frankovic & Eero Tölö, 2023. "Corporate taxes and investment when firms are internationally mobile," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(5), pages 1297-1330, October.
    6. Rami Hodrob, 2017. "The Impact of Foreign Direct Investment on Palestinian Economic Growth," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(4), pages 550-557.
    7. Oualid Lajili and Philippe Gilles, 2018. "Financial Liberalization, Political Openness and Growth in Developing Countries: Relationship and Transmission Channels," Journal of Economic Development, Chung-Ang Unviersity, Department of Economics, vol. 43(1), pages 1-27, March.
    8. Matija Rejec & Slavica Penev, 2011. "Attractiveness of Western Balkan Countries for FDI," Book Chapters, in: Mirjana Radovic Markovic & Srdjan Redzepagic & João Sousa Andrade & Paulino Teixeira (ed.), Serbia and the European Union: Economic Lessons from the New Member States, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 27-46, Institute of Economic Sciences.
    9. Assaf Razin & Efraim Sadka & Chi-Wa Yuen, 1999. "An Information-Based Model of Foreign Direct Investment: The Gains from Trade Revisited," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 6(4), pages 579-596, November.
    10. repec:ilo:ilowps:366690 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Jože P. Damijan & Mark Knell, 2005. "How Important Is Trade and Foreign Ownership in Closing the Technology Gap? Evidence from Estonia and Slovenia," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 141(2), pages 271-295, July.
    12. Jan Fagerberg & Bengt-Åke Lundvall & Martin Srholec, 2018. "Global Value Chains, National Innovation Systems and Economic Development," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 30(3), pages 533-556, July.
    13. Iamsiraroj, Sasi, 2016. "The foreign direct investment–economic growth nexus," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 116-133.
    14. Lee, Jong-Wha, 2005. "Human capital and productivity for Korea's sustained economic growth," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 663-687, August.
    15. Rabah Arezki & Klaus Deininger & Harris Selod, 2015. "What Drives the Global "Land Rush"?," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 29(2), pages 207-233.
    16. Kevin S. Nell & Maria M. De Mello, 2019. "The interdependence between the saving rate and technology across regimes: evidence from South Africa," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 269-300, January.
    17. Kanta Marwah & Akbar Tavakoli, 2004. "The Effect of Foreign Capital and Imports on Economic Growth: Further Evidence from Four Asian Countries," Carleton Economic Papers 04-02, Carleton University, Department of Economics.
    18. Ghimire, Narishwar & Woodward, Richard T., 2013. "Under- and over-use of pesticides: An international analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 73-81.
    19. Reis, Anabela & Heitor, Manuel & Amaral, Miguel & Mendonça, Joana, 2016. "Revisiting industrial policy: Lessons learned from the establishment of an automotive OEM in Portugal," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 113(PB), pages 195-205.
    20. Sodiq Arogundade & Mduduzi Biyase & Hinaunye Eita, 2021. "Foreign Direct Investment and Inclusive Human Development in Sub-Saharan African Countries:Does local Economic Conditions Matter?," Economic Development and Well-being Research Group Working Paper Series edwrg-01-2021, University of Johannesburg, College of Business and Economics, revised 2021.
    21. Sebastian Edwards & Domingo F. Cavallo & Arminio Fraga & Jacob Frenkel, 2003. "Exchange Rate Regimes," NBER Chapters, in: Economic and Financial Crises in Emerging Market Economies, pages 31-92, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    commercial balance; manufactured goods; FDI stock; CEE countries;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • L60 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Manufacturing - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tei:journl:v:13:y:2020:i:2:p:7-18. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kostas Stergidis (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/dbikagr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.