IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tec/journl/v42y2023i1p264-282.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Strategy for Services Anticipation at the Rehabilitation Center of BNN Based on Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Method

Author

Listed:
  • Rosita Dewi Eka Renel

    (School of Strategic and Global Studies, University of Indonesia.)

  • Palupi Lindiasari Samputra

    (School of Strategic and Global Studies, University of Indonesia.)

Abstract

One of the Indonesian government’s responses to the COVID-19 pandemic is making policies related to restrictions on public services which affects the organizational resilience of the Rehabilitation Center of the National Narcotics Board (BNN). This research aimed to determine the historical pattern of the influence of public service policies during the COVID-19 pandemic on the client population, to forecast the client population for 3 (three) months ahead, and to analyze strategies for anticipating rehabilitation services at the Rehabilitation Center of BNN. This research method is quantitative by using a moving average (MA) and exponential smoothing forecasting model. Based on the validity test, MA is the best forecasting model, which indicates a possibility of a spike in male clients with the same amount in the pre-pandemic period, as many as 310 people, and the average female client is 7 people. Meanwhile, adolescent clients show inaccurate prediction results with MAPE 149.825. Strategies that can be implemented to anticipate a spike in the number of clients if it reaches the highest forecasting point are: increasing the budget, modifying the rehabilitation program for female and adolescent clients, a balanced staff composition, and the availability of facilities and infrastructure.

Suggested Citation

  • Rosita Dewi Eka Renel & Palupi Lindiasari Samputra, 2023. "Strategy for Services Anticipation at the Rehabilitation Center of BNN Based on Moving Average and Exponential Smoothing Forecasting Method," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 42(1), pages 264-282, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:tec:journl:v:42:y:2023:i:1:p:264-282
    DOI: 10.47577/tssj.v42i1.8700
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://techniumscience.com/index.php/socialsciences/article/view/8700/3190
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://techniumscience.com/index.php/socialsciences/article/view/8700
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.47577/tssj.v42i1.8700?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Utari Dwi Pratiwi & Margaretha Hanita & Kurniawaty Iskandar, 2023. "A Study of Drug Abuse Prevention and Law Enforcement in Indonesia From The Persperctive of Social Control and Neurocriminology," Technium Social Sciences Journal, Technium Science, vol. 45(1), pages 460-468, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forecasting; Moving Average; Exponential Smoothing; Rehabilitation Center;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tec:journl:v:42:y:2023:i:1:p:264-282. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Tasente Tanase (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.