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Revisiting super-cycles in commodity prices

Author

Listed:
  • Fatma Pinar Erdem
  • Ibrahim Unalmis

Abstract

It is argued that business cycles have been moderating. However, there are a limited number of studies in the literature analyzing the cyclical behaviour of commodity prices in the last decades. This paper attempts to fill this gap by investigating the super-cycles in oil prices. In addition, interdependence between cycles in GDP and oil prices and co-movements between cycles in oil and other commodity prices are investigated. Results show that super-cycles in oil prices still exist and are not moderating. The last peak in long-term oil price was observed in 2012 and since then it has been on a downward trend.

Suggested Citation

  • Fatma Pinar Erdem & Ibrahim Unalmis, 2016. "Revisiting super-cycles in commodity prices," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 16(4), pages 137-142.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:16:y:2016:i:4:p:137-142
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Malanichev, A., 2018. "Modelling of Economic Oscillations of Shale Oil Production on the Basis of Analytical Solutions of a Differentiation Equation with a Retarded Argument," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 54-74.
    2. Vásquez Cordano, Arturo L. & Zellou, Abdel M., 2020. "Super cycles in natural gas prices and their impact on Latin American energy and environmental policies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    3. Yves Jégourel, 2018. "Tendances et cyclicité du prix des matières premières (partie 2) : le super-cycle des matières premières en question," Policy briefs 1824, Policy Center for the New South.
    4. Cifuentes, Sebastián & Cortazar, Gonzalo & Ortega, Hector & Schwartz, Eduardo S., 2020. "Expected prices, futures prices and time-varying risk premiums: The case of copper," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    5. Juan Ignacio Guzmán & Enrique Silva, 2018. "Copper price determination: fundamentals versus non-fundamentals," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 31(3), pages 283-300, October.
    6. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Sousa, Ricardo M. & Wadström, Christoffer & Sharmi, Rubaiya Zaman, 2022. "Do pandemic, trade policy and world uncertainties affect oil price returns?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    7. Kakade, Kshitij Abhay & Mishra, Aswini Kumar, 2021. "The impact of macroeconomic and oil shocks on India’s non-ferrous metal prices: A structural-VAR approach," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 63, pages 30-50.
    8. Nan, Yu & Sun, Renjin & Zhen, Zhao & Fangjing, Chu, 2022. "Measurement of international crude oil price cyclical fluctuations and correlation with the world economic cyclical changes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 260(C).
    9. Oglend, Atle, 2022. "The commodities/equities beta term-structure," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 28(C).
    10. Stenvall, David & Hedström, Axel & Yoshino, Naoyuki & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad, 2022. "Nonlinear tail dependence between the housing and energy markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(C).
    11. Agnello, Luca & Castro, Vítor & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2020. "Global factors, uncertainty, weather conditions and energy prices: On the drivers of the duration of commodity price cycle phases," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    12. Maneejuk, Paravee & Kaewtathip, Nuttaphong & Yamaka, Woraphon, 2024. "The influence of the Ukraine-Russia conflict on renewable and fossil energy price cycles," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Super-cycles; Commodity prices; Band-pass filters;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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