IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tcb/cebare/v14y2014i2p13-29.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Nufus Yapisindaki Degisimlerin Uzun Donem Konut Talebi Uzerindeki Etkileri

Author

Listed:
  • Yavuz Arslan
  • Evren Ceritoglu
  • Birol Kanik

Abstract

Bu calismada Turkiye icin nufus dagilimi dinamiklerinin uzun donemde konut talebi uzerindeki etkisi incelenmektedir. TUIK hanehalki butce anketi verileri kullanilarak hanehalki konut talebi hanehalkindaki bireylerin yas araliklari ile iliskilendirilmis ve her bir yas araligi icin konut talebi elde edilmistir. Bu tahmin sonuclari TUIK nufus projeksiyonlari ile birlestirilerek Turkiye icin uzun donem konut talebi projeksiyonu bulunmustur. Ekonometrik tahminler konut talebindeki buyumenin nufus artisinin yani sira Turk toplumunun nufus yapisindaki degisimlerinden etkilendigini gostermektedir. 2009-2050 yillari arasinda kalan donemde konut talebi yillik ortalama yuzde 1,48 oraninda artarken; soz konusu artisin yuzde 1,08’lik kisminin nufus artisindan ve kalan yuzde 0,4’luk artisin nufus yapisindaki degisimden kaynaklanacagi tahmin edilmektedir.

Suggested Citation

  • Yavuz Arslan & Evren Ceritoglu & Birol Kanik, 2014. "Nufus Yapisindaki Degisimlerin Uzun Donem Konut Talebi Uzerindeki Etkileri," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(2), pages 13-29.
  • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:14:y:2014:i:2:p:13-29
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN/Main+Menu/Publications/Central+Bank+Review/2014/Volume+14-2/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mankiw, N. Gregory & Weil, David N., 1989. "The baby boom, the baby bust, and the housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 235-258, May.
    2. Andrew Ang & Angela Maddaloni, 2005. "Do Demographic Changes Affect Risk Premiums? Evidence from International Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 341-380, January.
    3. Ohtake, Fumio & Shintani, Mototsugu, 1996. "The effect of demographics on the Japanese housing market," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 189-201, April.
    4. Andrew B. Abel, 2003. "The Effects of a Baby Boom on Stock Prices and Capital Accumulation in the Presence of Social Security," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(2), pages 551-578, March.
    5. James M. Poterba, 2001. "Demographic Structure And Asset Returns," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 83(4), pages 565-584, November.
    6. repec:bla:econom:v:63:y:1996:i:251:p:383-404 is not listed on IDEAS
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Author-Name: John Geanakoplos & Michael Magill & Martine Quinzii, 2004. "Demography and the Long-Run Predictability of the Stock Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 35(1), pages 241-326.
    2. Yuan Cheng & Xuehui Han, 2013. "Does large volatility help?—stochastic population forecasting technology in explaining real estate price process," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(1), pages 323-356, January.
    3. Stefano DellaVigna & Joshua M. Pollet, 2007. "Demographics and Industry Returns," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 97(5), pages 1667-1702, December.
    4. Manuel Ammann & Rachel Berchtold & Ralf Seiz, 2011. "Demographic Change and Pharmaceuticals' Stock Returns," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(4), pages 726-754, September.
    5. Christian Helmenstein & Alexia Prskawetz & Yuri Yegorov, 2002. "Wealth and cohort size: stock market boom or bust ahead?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-051, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Takáts, Előd, 2012. "Aging and house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 131-141.
    7. James M. Poterba, 2004. "The impact of population aging on financial markets," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 163-216.
    8. Kedar-Levy, Haim, 2014. "The potential effect of US baby-boom retirees on stock returns," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 106-121.
    9. Hans Fehr & Sabine Jokisch, 2006. "Demographischer Wandel und internationale Finanzmärkte," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 7(4), pages 501-517, November.
    10. Börsch-Supan, Axel & Ludwig, Alexander & Sommer, Mathias, 2005. "Aging and asset prices," Papers 07-29, Sonderforschungsbreich 504.
    11. Döring, Diether & Buth, Rainer & Rosengart, Anja Helena, 2007. "Bedroht die künftige demographische Entwicklung die Vermögenswerte kapitalgedeckter Altersversorgungssysteme? Auswertung des Standes der internationalen Forschung," Arbeitspapiere 128, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf.
    12. Andrew Ang & Angela Maddaloni, 2005. "Do Demographic Changes Affect Risk Premiums? Evidence from International Data," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 341-380, January.
    13. Kyung‐Mook Lim & David N. Weil, 2003. "The Baby Boom and the Stock Market Boom," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 359-378, September.
    14. Marianna Brunetti & Costanza Torricelli, 2010. "Demographics and asset returns: does the dynamics of population ageing matter?," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 6(2), pages 193-219, March.
    15. Mathias Sommer, 2005. "Trends in German households’ portfolio behavior - assessing the importance of age- and cohort-effects," MEA discussion paper series 05082, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    16. Favero, Carlo A. & Gozluklu, Arie E. & Tamoni, Andrea, 2011. "Demographic Trends, the Dividend-Price Ratio, and the Predictability of Long-Run Stock Market Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(5), pages 1493-1520, October.
    17. Christine Lai, 2008. "How Retired Households and Households Approaching Retirement Handle Their Equity Investments in the United States," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 601-622, December.
    18. Adrien Auclert & Hannes Malmberg & Frederic Martenet & Matthew Rognlie, 2021. "Demographics, Wealth, and Global Imbalances in the Twenty-First Century," NBER Working Papers 29161, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Shaofeng Xu, 2013. "An Equilibrium Analysis of the Rise in House Prices and Mortgage Debt," Staff Working Papers 13-9, Bank of Canada.
    20. Robert F. Martin, 2005. "The baby boom: predictability in house prices and interest rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 847, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing markets; Housing demand; Demographics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R30 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:14:y:2014:i:2:p:13-29. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge or the person in charge or the person in charge or the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/tcmgvtr.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.