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What determines success in initial coin offerings?

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  • Peter Roosenboom
  • Tom van der Kolk
  • Abe de Jong

Abstract

We analyse the determinants of success for 630 ICOs undertaken from August 2015 up until the end of December 2017, a period in which the market for ICOs grew to an unprecented level. We find evidence that ICOs are more successful in raising funding when they disclose more information to investors (i.e. have a higher profile rating), have a higher quality rating by cryptocurrency experts, have a pre-ICO GitHub repository, organise a presale, refrain from offering bonus schemes, have shorter planned token sale durations and have a larger project team. ICOs that disclose more information to investors and that have a higher quality rating at the time of the campaign show stronger ex-post performance. Longer-term project success is positively impacted by having a pre-ICO GitHub repository, a shorter planned token sale duration and having a larger project team at the time of the ICO, although these results depend on the ex-post success measure used. We conclude that for entrepreneurs it is important to make an ICO as transparent as possible and that profile and expert ratings are a valuable means to overcome the information asymmetry problems associated with token sales.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Roosenboom & Tom van der Kolk & Abe de Jong, 2020. "What determines success in initial coin offerings?," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 161-183, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:veecee:v:22:y:2020:i:2:p:161-183
    DOI: 10.1080/13691066.2020.1741127
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexander Guzmán & Cristian Pinto-Gutiérrez & María-Andrea Trujillo, 2021. "Signaling Value through Gender Diversity: Evidence from Initial Coin Offerings," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-19, January.
    2. Florysiak, David & Schandlbauer, Alexander, 2022. "Experts or charlatans? ICO analysts and white paper informativeness," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Huang, Winifred & Vismara, Silvio & Wei, Xingjie, 2022. "Confidence and capital raising," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Pastwa, Anna M. & Shrestha, Prabal & Thewissen, James & Torsin, Wouter, 2021. "Unpacking the black box of ICO white papers: a topic modeling approach," LIDAM Discussion Papers LFIN 2021018, Université catholique de Louvain, Louvain Finance (LFIN).
    5. Oscar Lage & María Saiz-Santos & José Manuel Zarzuelo, 2022. "Decentralized platform economy: emerging blockchain-based decentralized platform business models," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 32(3), pages 1707-1723, September.
    6. Shih‐Chu Chou & Zhe‐An Li & Tawei Wang & Ju‐Chun Yen, 2023. "How the quality of initial coin offering white papers influences fundraising: Using security token offerings white papers as a benchmark," Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(1), pages 3-18, January.
    7. Garratt, Rodney J. & van Oordt, Maarten R.C., 2022. "Entrepreneurial incentives and the role of initial coin offerings," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    8. Muneer M. Alshater & Mayank Joshipura & Rim El Khoury & Nohade Nasrallah, 2023. "Initial Coin Offerings: a Hybrid Empirical Review," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 891-908, October.
    9. Xia, Feilian & Thewissen, James & Shrestha, Prabal & Yan, Shuo, 2024. "The power of a name: Exploring the relationship between ICO name fluency and investor decision making," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 93(C).
    10. Thewissen, James & Shrestha, Prabal & Torsin, Wouter & Pastwa, Anna M., 2022. "Unpacking the black box of ICO white papers: A topic modeling approach," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    11. Wang, Tong & Zhao, Sheng & Zhou, Mengqiu, 2022. "Does soft information in expert ratings curb information asymmetry? Evidence from crowdfunding and early transaction phases of Initial Coin offerings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    12. Gächter, Ingo & Gächter, Martin, 2021. "Success factors in ICOs: Individual firm characteristics or lucky timing?," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    13. Alexander Guzmán & Cristian Pinto-Gutiérrez & María-Andrea Trujillo, 2020. "Attention to Global Warming and the Success of Environmental Initial Coin Offerings: Empirical Evidence," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(23), pages 1-16, November.
    14. Bongini, Paola & Osborne, Francesco & Pedrazzoli, Alessia & Rossolini, Monica, 2022. "A topic modelling analysis of white papers in security token offerings: Which topic matters for funding?," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 184(C).
    15. Chitsazan, Hasti & Bagheri, Afsaneh & Tajeddin, Mahdi, 2022. "Initial coin offerings (ICOs) success: Conceptualization, theories and systematic analysis of empirical studies," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    16. Sapkota, Niranjan & Grobys, Klaus, 2023. "Fear sells: On the sentiment deceptions and fundraising success of initial coin offerings," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 83(C).
    17. Barth, Andreas & Laturnus, Valerie & Mansouri, Sasan & Wagner, Alexander, 2021. "ICO analysts," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242429, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    18. Alessandro Bitetto & Paola Cerchiello, 2024. "Initial Coin Offerings: can ESG mitigate Underpricing?," DEM Working Papers Series 221, University of Pavia, Department of Economics and Management.
    19. Jingxing (Rowena) Gan & Gerry Tsoukalas & Serguei Netessine, 2021. "Initial Coin Offerings, Speculation, and Asset Tokenization," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(2), pages 914-931, February.
    20. Daniel Czaja & Florian Röder, 2022. "Signalling in Initial Coin Offerings: The Key Role of Entrepreneurs’ Self‐efficacy and Media Presence," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 58(1), pages 24-61, March.
    21. Marten Risius & Christoph F. Breidbach & Mathieu Chanson & Ruben Krannichfeldt & Felix Wortmann, 2023. "On the performance of blockchain-based token offerings," Electronic Markets, Springer;IIM University of St. Gallen, vol. 33(1), pages 1-19, December.
    22. Bollaert, Helen & Lopez-de-Silanes, Florencio & Schwienbacher, Armin, 2021. "Fintech and access to finance," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    23. Ravi Kashyap, 2024. "The Concentration Risk Indicator: Raising the Bar for Financial Stability and Portfolio Performance Measurement," Papers 2408.07271, arXiv.org.

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