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Integrating Real Options with Managerial Cash Flow Estimates

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  • Kelsey Barton
  • Yuri Lawryshyn

Abstract

This article presents a real options model that fits managerial cash flow estimates (optimistic, likely, and pessimistic projections) to a continuous geometric Brownian motion (GBM) cash flow process with changing growth and volatility parameters. The cash flows and the value of a project are correlated to a traded asset, so the real option is priced under the risk-neutral measure with a closed-form solution. The analysis is extended to a sequential compound call option for investments over multiple periods. If the project is correlated to the market, then some of the risk may be mitigated by a delta-hedging strategy. A numerical example shows that the effect of the correlated asset on the real option value is significant, and the relationship between the volatility of the project and the real option value is not analogous to the typical relationship found in financial option pricing. Integrating the expertise and industry knowledge of management, this approach makes possible a more rigorous estimation of model inputs for real option pricing.

Suggested Citation

  • Kelsey Barton & Yuri Lawryshyn, 2011. "Integrating Real Options with Managerial Cash Flow Estimates," The Engineering Economist, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(3), pages 254-273.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:uteexx:v:56:y:2011:i:3:p:254-273
    DOI: 10.1080/0013791X.2011.601403
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    Cited by:

    1. Savolainen, Jyrki, 2016. "Real options in metal mining project valuation: Review of literature," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 49-65.
    2. Mikael Collan & Jyrki Savolainen & Pasi Luukka, 2017. "Investigating the effect of price process selection on the value of a metal mining asset portfolio," Mineral Economics, Springer;Raw Materials Group (RMG);Luleå University of Technology, vol. 30(2), pages 107-115, July.
    3. Anubha Srivastava & Manjula Shastri, 2020. "A Study of Black–Scholes Model’s Applicability in Indian Capital Markets," Paradigm, , vol. 24(1), pages 73-92, June.
    4. Sebastian Jaimungal & Yuri Lawryshyn, 2017. "Using managerial revenue and cost estimates to value early stage real option investments," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 259(1), pages 173-190, December.

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