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Reliability assessment for multi-state systems under uncertainties based on the Dempster–Shafer theory

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  • Mohamed Sallak
  • Walter Schön
  • Felipe Aguirre

Abstract

This article presents an original method for evaluating reliability indices for Multi-State Systems (MSSs) in the presence of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In many real- world MSSs, an insufficiency of data makes it difficult to estimate precise values for component state probabilities. The proposed approach applies the transferable belief model interpretation of the Dempster–Shafer theory to represent component state beliefs and to evaluate the MSS reliability indices. The example of an oil transmission system is used to demonstrate the proposed approach and it is compared with the universal generating function method. The value of the Dempster–Shafer theory lies in its ability to use several combination rules in order to evaluate reliability indices for MSSs that depend on the reliability of the experts’ opinions as well as their independence.

Suggested Citation

  • Mohamed Sallak & Walter Schön & Felipe Aguirre, 2013. "Reliability assessment for multi-state systems under uncertainties based on the Dempster–Shafer theory," IISE Transactions, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(9), pages 995-1007.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:uiiexx:v:45:y:2013:i:9:p:995-1007
    DOI: 10.1080/0740817X.2012.706378
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    Cited by:

    1. Shao, Changzheng & Ding, Yi, 2020. "Two-interdependent-performance multi-state system: Definitions and reliability evaluation," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 199(C).
    2. Ossai, Chinedu I., 2019. "Remaining useful life estimation for repairable multi-state components subjected to multiple maintenance actions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 182(C), pages 142-151.

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