IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/ufajxx/v80y2024i1p84-98.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Breaking Bad Trends

Author

Listed:
  • Christian L. Goulding
  • Campbell R. Harvey
  • Michele G. Mazzoleni

Abstract

We document and quantify the negative impact of trend breaks (i.e., turning points in the trajectory of asset prices) on the performance of standard monthly trend-following strategies across several assets and asset classes. In the years of the US economy’s expansion following the global financial crisis of 2008, we find an increase in the frequency of trend breaks, which helps explain the lower performance of these trend strategies during this period. We illustrate how to repair such strategies using a dynamic trend-following approach that exploits the return-forecasting properties of the two types of trend breaks: market corrections and rebounds.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian L. Goulding & Campbell R. Harvey & Michele G. Mazzoleni, 2024. "Breaking Bad Trends," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 80(1), pages 84-98, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:ufajxx:v:80:y:2024:i:1:p:84-98
    DOI: 10.1080/0015198X.2023.2270084
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/0015198X.2023.2270084
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/0015198X.2023.2270084?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:ufajxx:v:80:y:2024:i:1:p:84-98. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/ufaj20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.