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Prior-based Bayesian information criterion

Author

Listed:
  • M. J. Bayarri
  • James O. Berger
  • Woncheol Jang
  • Surajit Ray
  • Luis R. Pericchi
  • Ingmar Visser

Abstract

We present a new approach to model selection and Bayes factor determination, based on Laplace expansions (as in BIC), which we call Prior-based Bayes Information Criterion (PBIC). In this approach, the Laplace expansion is only done with the likelihood function, and then a suitable prior distribution is chosen to allow exact computation of the (approximate) marginal likelihood arising from the Laplace approximation and the prior. The result is a closed-form expression similar to BIC, but now involves a term arising from the prior distribution (which BIC ignores) and also incorporates the idea that different parameters can have different effective sample sizes (whereas BIC only allows one overall sample size n). We also consider a modification of PBIC which is more favourable to complex models.

Suggested Citation

  • M. J. Bayarri & James O. Berger & Woncheol Jang & Surajit Ray & Luis R. Pericchi & Ingmar Visser, 2019. "Prior-based Bayesian information criterion," Statistical Theory and Related Fields, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 2-13, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:tstfxx:v:3:y:2019:i:1:p:2-13
    DOI: 10.1080/24754269.2019.1582126
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    Cited by:

    1. Su, Zheren & Wang, Yaping & Zhou, Yingchun, 2020. "On maximin distance and nearly orthogonal Latin hypercube designs," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    2. D. Vélez & M. E. Pérez & L. R. Pericchi, 2022. "Increasing the replicability for linear models via adaptive significance levels," TEST: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 31(3), pages 771-789, September.

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