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Applicability of an Extended Prospect Theory to Travel Behaviour Research: A Meta‐Analysis

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  • Evert Jan van de Kaa

Abstract

In transport research, choice behaviour is commonly investigated by using discrete choice models that comply with the utility theory (UT) paradigm. The objective of this article is to assess the extent to which the assumptions of an extended version of prospect theory (PT) allow for a better description of travellers’ choice behaviour than UT. To that aim the travel behaviour literature was reviewed for information about observed choice behaviour suitable for such a comparison. The review yielded 106 studies that covered almost the whole range of domains and contexts of travel behaviour. Compared to the corresponding assumptions of UT, a meta‐analysis showed a better descriptive performance of reference‐dependent framing connected with loss‐aversive valuation, and of interpersonal heterogeneity in choice behaviour strategies. Diminishing sensitivity approached the observed behaviour better than the sign‐independent utility function of UT in several studies where a comparison was feasible. In choice under risk or uncertainty, the non‐linear weighting of probabilities in connection with loss aversion appeared to offer a better description than expected UT. It is concluded that the joint application of the assumptions of an extended PT might provide a better understanding of human choice behaviour over the whole range of travel‐related contexts.

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  • Evert Jan van de Kaa, 2010. "Applicability of an Extended Prospect Theory to Travel Behaviour Research: A Meta‐Analysis," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(6), pages 771-804, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:transr:v:30:y:2010:i:6:p:771-804
    DOI: 10.1080/01441647.2010.486907
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Jan Rouwendal & Arianne T. de Blaeij, 2004. "Inconsistent and Lexicographic Choices in Stated Preference Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-038/3, Tinbergen Institute.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gao, Kun & Sun, Lijun & Yang, Ying & Meng, Fanyu & Qu, Xiaobo, 2021. "Cumulative prospect theory coupled with multi-attribute decision making for modeling travel behavior," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1-21.
    2. repec:cup:judgdm:v:12:y:2017:i:3:p:260-279 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Haghani, Milad & Bliemer, Michiel C.J. & Hensher, David A., 2021. "The landscape of econometric discrete choice modelling research," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    4. Avineri, Erel, 2012. "On the use and potential of behavioural economics from the perspective of transport and climate change," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 24(C), pages 512-521.
    5. Chowdhury, Subeh & Ceder, Avishai (Avi), 2016. "Users’ willingness to ride an integrated public-transport service: A literature review," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 183-195.
    6. Evert Jan van de Kaa, 2017. "Establishing the relevance of non-compensatory choice algorithms from stated choice surveys – an exploration," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 12(3), pages 260-279, May.
    7. Zhang, Zhaolin & Zhai, Guocong & Xie, Kun & Xiao, Feng, 2022. "Exploring the nonlinear effects of ridesharing on public transit usage: A case study of San Diego," Journal of Transport Geography, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).

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