The new frontier of urban mobility: a scenario-based analysis of autonomous vehicles adoption in urban transportation

Urban mobility, as a critical component of urban development and sustainability, is on the brink of a major revolution with the advent and widespread adoption of autonomous vehicles (AVs). However, the ambitious vision of a transformative shared economic future and decreased car ownership conflicts with the notion that car dependency will be worsened, leading to significant uncertainties and potential challenges surrounding AVs, particularly in developing countries. In this context, this study contributes to the literature by addressing these uncertainties, through an empirical examination of preferences toward four distinct modes of transportation: “public transport”, “conventional private car”, “autonomous private car”, and “shared autonomous taxi”. To accomplish this, a scenario-based stated preference survey was administered in Istanbul, Turkey, as an example of a megacity in a developing country. The collected data were analyzed using discrete choice models (multinomial and random parameter (mixed) logit models) to reveal the preferences of the survey participants. The findings indicate that considering the social status and significance associated with private vehicle ownership, the challenges of popularizing shared and on-demand AV modes should not be underestimated.