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Analysis and forecasting of port logistics using TEI@I methodology

Author

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  • Xin Tian
  • Liming Liu
  • K. K. Lai
  • Shouyang Wang

Abstract

This paper presents an integrated forecasting model based on the TEI@I methodology for forecasting demand for port logistics services - specifically, port container throughput. The model analyzes port logistics time series data and other information in several steps. In the first step, several econometric models are built to forecast the linear segment of port logistics time series. In the second step, a radial basis function neural network is developed to predict the nonlinear segment of the time series. In the third step, the event-study method and expert system techniques are applied to evaluate the effects of economic and other events that may impact demand for port logistics. In the final step, synthetic forecasting results are obtained, based on the integration of predictions from the above three steps. For an illustration, Hong Kong port's container throughput series is used as a case study. The empirical results show the effectiveness of the TEI@I integrated model for port logistics forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Xin Tian & Liming Liu & K. K. Lai & Shouyang Wang, 2013. "Analysis and forecasting of port logistics using TEI@I methodology," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(8), pages 685-702, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:transp:v:36:y:2013:i:8:p:685-702
    DOI: 10.1080/03081060.2013.851506
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Parola & Giovanni Satta & Theo Notteboom & Luca Persico, 2021. "Revisiting traffic forecasting by port authorities in the context of port planning and development," Maritime Economics & Logistics, Palgrave Macmillan;International Association of Maritime Economists (IAME), vol. 23(3), pages 444-494, September.
    2. Yi Xiao & Shouyang Wang & Ming Xiao & Jin Xiao & Yi Hu, 2017. "The Analysis for the Cargo Volume with Hybrid Discrete Wavelet Modeling," International Journal of Information Technology & Decision Making (IJITDM), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 16(03), pages 851-863, May.
    3. Feng, Hongxiang & Grifoll, Manel & Zheng, Pengjun, 2019. "From a feeder port to a hub port: The evolution pathways, dynamics and perspectives of Ningbo-Zhoushan port (China)," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 21-35.

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