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Univariate Uncertainty Analysis of an Integrated Land Use and Transportation Model: MEPLAN

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  • Michael J. Clay
  • Robert A. Johnston

Abstract

Land use and transportation models are typically given precise inputs and return precise outputs. This precision should not be mistaken for accuracy. The purpose of this paper is to introduce uncertainty into three inputs and one parameter of a fully integrated land use and travel demand model -- MEPLAN -- to determine the effect of uncertain inputs on model outputs. Inputs were selected based upon there being expected sources of uncertainty. Inputs were varied individually based upon plausible amounts of error and the marginal impact of each on outputs was examined. Counter to the findings of previous similar studies, uncertainty in the socio-economic forecasts did not dominate the final amounts of error observed in the model outputs. The propagation of error across model years, as well as the final level of error in the end-year, is examined.

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  • Michael J. Clay & Robert A. Johnston, 2005. "Univariate Uncertainty Analysis of an Integrated Land Use and Transportation Model: MEPLAN," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 149-165, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:transp:v:28:y:2005:i:3:p:149-165
    DOI: 10.1080/03081060500120233
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    Cited by:

    1. Michael J. Clay & Arnold Valdez & Alex Norr & Samuel M. Otterstrom, 2017. "Uncertainty analysis of the large zone economic module of the simple, efficient, elegant, and effective model (SEM) of land use and transportation," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(8), pages 855-874, November.
    2. Clay, Michael J & Johnston, Robert A., 2008. "Large Real Estate Developments, Spatial Uncertainty, And Integrated Land Use And Transportation Modeling," University of California Transportation Center, Working Papers qt00f8w5pc, University of California Transportation Center.

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