Development and analysis of digital twins of production systems

Production systems have to be adapted continuously to changing circumstances. This means that the responsible production planner has to frequently make decisions about reconfiguring complex systems under uncertainty whose outcome greatly affects the company’s business success. Discrete-event simulation is one powerful tool to support the necessary analysis and scenario evaluation, but still remains time-consuming and tricky to set up and to maintain. When implemented as a digital twin of the production system, the simulation model can maintain a high degree of accuracy over a long time period. An approach to realise this potential is presented and illustrated in this paper with a use case from the automotive industry. This paper contributes several new methods and findings to the development of digital twins of production systems: Firstly, it demonstrates how exceptional events in the validation of the digital twin can be handled. Secondly, it shows how structural changes in the system can be discovered using data on machine activity and process mining. Thirdly, the paper introduces a possibility on how to assess the accuracy of the digital twin. Furthermore, it demonstrates how to assess the robustness of the digital twin to estimation errors in machine processing times.