Identifying DMSMS availability risk at the system level

Many enterprise systems are comprised of parts with shorter product lifetimes than the system lifetime. Managing the availability of the parts in the supply chain to ensure uninterrupted operation of the system is non-trivial and can be costly in terms of capital and resources. A DMSMS (Diminishing Manufacturing Sources and Material Shortages) issue is the loss, or impending loss, of a manufacturer because the manufacturer discontinues production or support of needed parts. Proactive DMSMS requires the ability to forecast part availability in the marketplace under varying conditions. This paper goes beyond part-level forecasting by developing a framework to estimate availability risk at the system level. The proposed framework quantifies and compares availability risk for multiple parts in a system using a finite-source capacitated queuing model. Two availability risk metrics are defined: the fraction of time with no vendor parts available and the time until a part will be unavailable in the market. The metrics are demonstrated in scenarios that a DMSMS practitioner is likely to experience. The results demonstrate that the framework can be used to inform proactive DMSMS decisions by providing a measurement of the risk in the logistics system which supports cost and resource allocation trade-offs.