A fuzzy multi-criteria decision-making approach for managing performance and risk in integrated procurement–production planning

Nowadays in Supply Chain (SC) networks, a high level of risk comes from SC partners. An effective risk management process becomes as a consequence mandatory, especially at the tactical planning level. The aim of this article is to present a risk-oriented integrated procurement–production approach for tactical planning in a multi-echelon SC network involving multiple suppliers, multiple parallel manufacturing plants, multiple subcontractors and several customers. An originality of the work is to combine an analytical model allowing to build feasible scenarios and a multi-criteria approach for assessing these scenarios. The literature has mainly addressed the problem through cost or profit-based optimisation and seldom considers more qualitative yet important criteria linked to risk, like trust in the supplier, flexibility or resilience. Unlike the traditional approaches, we present a method evaluating each possible supply scenario through performance-based and risk-based decision criteria, involving both qualitative and quantitative factors, in order to clearly separate the performance of a scenario and the risk taken if it is adopted. Since the decision-maker often cannot provide crisp values for some critical data, fuzzy sets theory is suggested in order to model vague information based on subjective expertise. Fuzzy Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution is used to determine both the performance and risk measures correlated to each possible tactical plan. The applicability and tractability of the proposed approach is shown on an illustrative example and a sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the influence of criteria weights on the selection of the procurement–production plan.