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Meeting the EU 2°C climate target: global and regional emission implications

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  • Michel den Elzen
  • Malte Meinshausen

Abstract

This article presents a set of multi-gas emission pathways for different CO 2 -equivalent concentration stabilization levels, i.e. 400, 450, 500 and 550 ppm CO 2 -equivalent, along with an analysis of their global and regional reduction implications and implied probability of achieving the EU climate target of 2°C. For achieving the 2°C target with a probability of more than 60%, greenhouse gas concentrations need to be stabilized at 450 ppm CO 2 -equivalent or below, if the 90% uncertainty range for climate sensitivity is believed to be 1.5-4.5°C. A stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 -equivalent or below (400 ppm) requires global emissions to peak around 2015, followed by substantial overall reductions of as much as 25% (45% for 400 ppm) compared to 1990 levels in 2050. In 2020, Annex I emissions need to be approximately 15% (30%) below 1990 levels, and non-Annex I emissions also need to be reduced by 15-20% compared to their baseline emissions. A further delay in peaking of global emissions by 10 years doubles maximum reduction rates to about 5% per year, and very probably leads to high costs. In order to keep the option open of stabilizing at 400 and 450 ppm CO 2 -equivalent, the USA and major advanced non-Annex I countries will have to participate in the reductions within the next 10-15 years.

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  • Michel den Elzen & Malte Meinshausen, 2006. "Meeting the EU 2°C climate target: global and regional emission implications," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(5), pages 545-564, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:tcpoxx:v:6:y:2006:i:5:p:545-564
    DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2006.9685620
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhou, P. & Wang, M., 2016. "Carbon dioxide emissions allocation: A review," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 47-59.
    2. Fander Falconí & Rafael Burbano & Jesus Ramos-Martin, 2015. "De activos tóxicos a ingreso tóxico," Documentos de Trabajo CEPROEC 2015_07, Instituto de Altos Estudios Nacionales, Centro de Prospectiva Estratégica.
    3. Fander Falconí & Rafael Burbano & Jesus Ramos-Martin & Pedro Cango, 2019. "Toxic Income as a Trigger of Climate Change," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-25, April.
    4. Wachsmuth, Jakob & Denishchenkova, Alexandra & Fekete, Hanna & Parra, Paola & Schaeffer, Michiel & Ancygier, Andrzej & Sferra, Fabio, 2019. "Fairness- and cost-effectiveness-based approaches to effort-sharing under the Paris agreement," Working Papers "Sustainability and Innovation" S04/2019, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research (ISI).
    5. den Elzen, Michel & Höhne, Niklas & van Vliet, Jasper, 2009. "Analysing comparable greenhouse gas mitigation efforts for Annex I countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(10), pages 4114-4131, October.
    6. Timilsina, Govinda R., 2012. "Economic implications of moving toward global convergence on emission intensities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6115, The World Bank.
    7. Asbjørn Torvanger & Alv-Arne Grimstad & Erik Lindeberg & Nathan Rive & Kristin Rypdal & Ragnhild Skeie & Jan Fuglestvedt & Petter Tollefsen, 2012. "Quality of geological CO 2 storage to avoid jeopardizing climate targets," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 114(2), pages 245-260, September.
    8. van Vuuren, Detlef P. & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & van Vliet, Jasper & Kram, Tom & Lucas, Paul & Isaac, Morna, 2009. "Comparison of different climate regimes: the impact of broadening participation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(12), pages 5351-5362, December.
    9. Meng Xu & Zhongfeng Qin & Yigang Wei, 2023. "Exploring the financing and allocating schemes for the Chinese Green Climate Fund," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 25(3), pages 2487-2508, March.
    10. van Ruijven, Bas J. & Weitzel, Matthias & den Elzen, Michel G.J. & Hof, Andries F. & van Vuuren, Detlef P. & Peterson, Sonja & Narita, Daiju, 2012. "Emission allowances and mitigation costs of China and India resulting from different effort-sharing approaches," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 116-134.
    11. Xue Wang & Wen Ni & Jiajie Li & Siqi Zhang & Keqing Li & Wentao Hu, 2021. "Use of CO 2 to Cure Steel Slag and Gypsum-Based Material," Energies, MDPI, vol. 14(16), pages 1-15, August.

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