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How to attribute market leakage to CDM projects

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Listed:
  • Frank V�hringer
  • Timo Kuosmanen
  • Rob Dellink

Abstract

Economic studies suggest that market leakage rates of greenhouse gas abatement can reach the two-digit percentage range. Although the Marrakesh Accords require Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects to account for leakage, most projects neglect market leakage. Insufficient leakage accounting is facilitated by a lack of applicable methods regarding the quantification and attribution of project-related leakage effects. This article proposes a method for attributing CDM-related market leakage effects to individual projects. To this purpose, alternative attribution methods are analysed. We find that project-specific approaches fail to take account of market leakage effects. Consequently, we propose to estimate aggregate market leakage effects and attribute them proportionally to individual projects. We suggest that predetermined commodity-specific leakage factors are applied by project developers to any emission reductions that are associated with a project's leakage-relevant demand or supply changes. This approach is conservative, equitable, incentive-compatible and applicable at manageable costs.

Suggested Citation

  • Frank V�hringer & Timo Kuosmanen & Rob Dellink, 2005. "How to attribute market leakage to CDM projects," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(5), pages 503-516, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:tcpoxx:v:5:y:2005:i:5:p:503-516
    DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2006.9685574
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brian C. Murray & Bruce A. McCarl & Heng-Chi Lee, 2004. "Estimating Leakage from Forest Carbon Sequestration Programs," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 80(1), pages 109-124.
    2. Mr. Noureddine Krichene, 2005. "A Simultaneous Equations Model for World Crude Oil and Natural Gas Markets," IMF Working Papers 2005/032, International Monetary Fund.
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