Anticipatory climate policy mix pathways: a framework for ex-ante construction and assessment applied to the road transport sector

Globally, climate policy implementation is failing to deliver on the ambitions outlined in the Paris Agreement and countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions. We argue that a more strategic and anticipatory approach to policy mix design and implementation can help contribute to realizing these ambitions. Policy mixes need to co-evolve as energy transitions progress, in order to effectively target multiple transition challenges as these change over time. Accordingly, policy assessments need to both consider interactions between instruments and adopt a dynamic perspective, in terms of design logics and evaluative criteria. We highlight the need for a construction and assessment methodology for designing policy mix pathways which explicitly considers durability risks which could weaken support and lead to dismantling, and anticipatory design principles which can help mitigate these risks. Our paper addresses this gap by proposing and illustrating a novel framework for policy instrument mix pathway construction and ex-ante assessment. We identify generalizable durability challenges for effective anticipatory design: dynamic cost effectiveness, the distributive impacts and acceptance of pathways, along with fiscal and governance requirements for effective implementation. We demonstrate the value of the approach by application to the German light-duty vehicle sector transition. We construct and comparatively assess three illustrative pathways promising to deliver the German LDV sector 2030 GHG targets. The pathways differ in logic, and which of three main market dynamics driving a diffusion-stage transition they emphasize: battery electric vehicle (BEV) purchase, vehicle stock usage, and internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicle scrappage. Accordingly, the pathways utilize different instrument combinations, design features and calibrations. We also assess the illustrative pathways and discuss trade-offs. We argue that this approach can help improve climate policy planning and implementation processes, and increase the likelihood attaining ambitious mitigation targets.Key policy insights Policy mix pathway design needs to consider instrument interactions and dynamic and inter-temporal durability challenges as they co-evolve with the stage of transition.Policy mix durability challenges increase risks of political backlash which may undermine support for the transition and lead to dismantling.Application of anticipatory design principles while constructing policy mixes, combined with reflexive assessment and recalibration can help mitigate potential durability risks.Supportive policy instruments can be combined with core instruments to reduce durability risks of the overall mix. This may include distributing resources and revenues to improve progressivity and increase acceptance.Our application to the German LDV sector highlights that a sequencing approach, initially focussing on stock turnover and shifting to usage over time, allows less accepted instruments (carbon pricing, vehicle-usage malus) to increase in stringency more gradually, reducing risks.