Ambitious climate targets and emission reductions in cities: a configurational analysis

Cities have become increasingly vocal in addressing climate change, crafting climate mitigation strategies, and committing to ambitious emission reductions. Previous studies found no evidence that ambitious targets, analyzed as a single factor, translate into actual emission reductions in cities. Yet, is this still the case if ambitious targets are analyzed in combination with other institutional and socioeconomic factors? We carry out a fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis of all cities reporting their emissions to the Carbon Disclosure Project (CDP) where data are available for at least four years between 2000 and 2020. The analysis tests whether ambitious emission reduction targets, in conjunction with size, affluence, and favourable domestic enabling conditions are systematically associated with substantial emission reductions. Results show different configurations leading to emission reductions. In some configurations, ambitious targets are redundant or counterproductive. In other configurations, ambitious targets are necessary to achieve emission reductions. These results call for greater attention to cities’ heterogeneity when studying urban climate governance.Key policy insightsThree configurations seem systematically associated with downward emission trends: being large and affluent; being small and without ambitious emission reduction targets; and being large, with ambitious emission reduction targets but without favourable domestic enabling conditions.Ambitious emission targets and favourable conditions at the national level seem redundant for emission reductions in cities that are both large and affluent. These cities seem to achieve emission reductions regardless of the presence of ambitious targets.Small cities need to cooperate with other actors to reduce emissions and therefore need to be pragmatic and strategic in setting their targets.Large cities may need to set ambitious targets to exploit the benefits of their size for emission reduction. This seems to be necessary when they are lacking favourable conditions at the national level.