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A factor of two: how the mitigation plans of ‘climate progressive’ nations fall far short of Paris-compliant pathways

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  • Kevin Anderson
  • John F. Broderick
  • Isak Stoddard

Abstract

The Paris Agreement establishes an international covenant to reduce emissions in line with holding the increase in temperature to ‘well below 2°C … and to pursue … 1.5°C.’ Global modelling studies have repeatedly concluded that such commitments can be delivered through technocratic adjustments to contemporary society, principally price mechanisms driving technical change. However, as emissions have continued to rise, so these models have come to increasingly rely on the extensive deployment of highly speculative negative emissions technologies (NETs). Moreover, in determining the mitigation challenges for industrialized nations, scant regard is paid to the language and spirit of equity enshrined in the Paris Agreement. If, instead, the mitigation agenda of ‘developed country Parties’ is determined without reliance on planetary scale NETs and with genuine regard for equity and ‘common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities’, the necessary rates of mitigation increase markedly. This is evident even when considering the UK and Sweden, two nations at the forefront of developing ‘progressive’ climate change legislation and with clear emissions pathways and/or quantitative carbon budgets. In both cases, the carbon budgets underpinning mitigation policy are halved, the immediate mitigation rate is increased to over 10% per annum, and the time to deliver a fully decarbonized energy system is brought forward to 2035-40. Such a challenging mitigation agenda implies profound changes to many facets of industrialized economies. This conclusion is not drawn from political ideology, but rather is a direct consequence of the international community’s obligations under the Paris Agreement and the small and rapidly dwindling global carbon budget.Key Policy Insights Without a belief in the successful deployment of planetary scale negative emissions technologies, double-digit annual mitigation rates are required of developed countries, from 2020, if they are to align their policies with the Paris Agreement’s temperature commitments and principles of equity.Paris-compliant carbon budgets for developed countries imply full decarbonization of energy by 2035-40, necessitating a scale of change in physical infrastructure reminiscent of the post-Second World War Marshall Plan. This brings issues of values, measures of prosperity and socio-economic inequality to the fore.The stringency of Paris-compliant pathways severely limits the opportunity for inter-sectoral emissions trading. Consequently aviation, as with all sectors, will need to identify policies to reduce emissions to zero, directly or through the use of zero carbon fuels.The UK and Swedish governments’ emissions pathways imply a carbon budget of at least a factor of two greater than their fair contribution to delivering on the Paris Agreement’s 1.5-2°C commitment.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Anderson & John F. Broderick & Isak Stoddard, 2020. "A factor of two: how the mitigation plans of ‘climate progressive’ nations fall far short of Paris-compliant pathways," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(10), pages 1290-1304, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:tcpoxx:v:20:y:2020:i:10:p:1290-1304
    DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2020.1728209
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    Cited by:

    1. Ceecee Holz & Guy Cunliffe & Kennedy Mbeva & Pieter W. Pauw & Harald Winkler, 2023. "Tempering and enabling ambition: how equity is considered in domestic processes preparing NDCs," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 271-292, September.
    2. John Barrett & Steve Pye & Sam Betts-Davies & Oliver Broad & James Price & Nick Eyre & Jillian Anable & Christian Brand & George Bennett & Rachel Carr-Whitworth & Alice Garvey & Jannik Giesekam & Greg, 2022. "Energy demand reduction options for meeting national zero-emission targets in the United Kingdom," Nature Energy, Nature, vol. 7(8), pages 726-735, August.
    3. Huwe, Vera & Krahé, Max & Sigl-Glöckner, Philippa, 2021. "Effektiv und mehrheitsfähig? Der Emissionshandel auf dem Prüfstand," Papers 277891, Dezernat Zukunft - Institute for Macrofinance, Berlin.
    4. Fredrik N. G. Andersson & Susanne Arvidsson, 2024. "The impact of the Covid‐19 pandemic on the environmental sustainability strategies of listed firms in Sweden," Business Strategy and the Environment, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 462-476, February.
    5. Tilsted, Joachim Peter & Bjørn, Anders & Majeau-Bettez, Guillaume & Lund, Jens Friis, 2021. "Accounting matters: Revisiting claims of decoupling and genuine green growth in Nordic countries," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    6. Andersson, Fredrik N G & Arvidsson, Susanne, 2024. "The Firms’ Integration Process of the Twin Pillars of Environmental Sustainability: Climate Change and Biodiversity Loss," Working Papers 2024:2, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    7. Mark Diesendorf & Steven Hail, 2022. "Funding of the Energy Transition by Monetary Sovereign Countries," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(16), pages 1-14, August.
    8. Rashmeet Kaur & John Patsavellas & Yousef Haddad & Konstantinos Salonitis, 2023. "The Concept of Carbon Accounting in Manufacturing Systems and Supply Chains," Energies, MDPI, vol. 17(1), pages 1-17, December.
    9. Steven R. Smith & Ian Christie, 2021. "Knowledge Integration in the Politics and Policy of Rapid Transitions to Net Zero Carbon: A Typology and Mapping Method for Climate Actors in the UK," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(2), pages 1-23, January.
    10. Lisa Winkler & Drew Pearce & Jenny Nelson & Oytun Babacan, 2023. "The effect of sustainable mobility transition policies on cumulative urban transport emissions and energy demand," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 14(1), pages 1-14, December.
    11. Li, X. & Arbabi, H. & Bennett, G. & Oreszczyn, T. & Densley Tingley, D., 2022. "Net zero by 2050: Investigating carbon-budget compliant retrofit measures for the English housing stock," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).

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