Energy-intensive manufacturing sectors in China: policy priorities for achieving climate mitigation and energy conservation targets

In this study, a long-range energy alternative planning (LEAP) model was built to evaluate the relative priority of three kinds of policies expected to be implemented for the energy-intensive manufacturing sectors (EIMS) in China to achieve CO2 mitigation and energy conservation targets. These policies encourage (1) the use of more electricity instead of coal; (2) the continuous improvement of energy efficiency; and (3) a shift to other less energy-demanding sectors. The results indicate that the policy of shifting economic activity from the EIMS to other sectors is most helpful for China to achieve its targets of mitigating CO2 emissions and conserving energy. Encouraging the EIMS to use more electricity can help China to achieve a higher proportion of non-fossil-fuel based energy in its overall primary energy consumption. No single policy will allow China to achieve all the targets, emphasizing the need for an integrated policy design that combines all types of policies.Key policy insights The policy of encouraging a shift to less energy intensive industries should receive the highest priority in aiming to peak China's energy-related CO2 emissions as early as possible, and lower overall CO2 emissions, coal consumption and primary energy consumption in the long run.Encouraging a shift to electricity should go hand-in-hand with greater energy efficiency, otherwise such a policy cannot help China significantly reduce energy-related CO2 emissions.Encouraging the EIMS to use more electricity should receive the highest priority in helping China achieve a higher proportion of non-fossil-fuel based energy in its overall primary energy consumption.