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Market potential, spatial theories and spatial trends

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  • Fernando Bruna

Abstract

Previous literature on European regions has shown that structural estimation of New Economic Geography (NEG) wage-type equations obtains results similar to those obtained using old regional economics techniques. I show that this similarity is due to the presence of global spatial trends in the variables (first-order non-stationarity), which produce spurious regressions. Formal tests and graphical models confirm that any variable displaying a core–periphery spatial pattern produces similar predictions for European regional per capita income. Empirical tests of spatial theories should thus pay attention to the geographical features of the administrative units and the global spatial trends of the variables analysed.

Suggested Citation

  • Fernando Bruna, 2024. "Market potential, spatial theories and spatial trends," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 527-548, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:specan:v:19:y:2024:i:4:p:527-548
    DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2024.2325517
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