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The implications of re-exports for gravity equation estimation, NAFTA and Brexit

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  • Maureen Lankhuizen
  • Mark Thissen

Abstract

This paper illustrates the importance of taking into account re-exports. It shows that not taking into account re-exports causes estimates from the gravity model to be biased. It also considers the implications of re-exports for two current policy events. It is shown that the United States actually ran a net trade surplus in the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). Second, it is argued there may be additional costs for the UK economy from Brexit that are not addressed in earlier studies. This paper derives bilateral trade flows corrected for re-exports for a large number of countries at a detailed product level, using the World Input–Output Database (WIOD). Through a constrained non-linear optimization procedure, complete origin–destination matrices of re-exports are determined. Trade is subsequently restored to its most likely origin and destination.

Suggested Citation

  • Maureen Lankhuizen & Mark Thissen, 2019. "The implications of re-exports for gravity equation estimation, NAFTA and Brexit," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(4), pages 384-403, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:specan:v:14:y:2019:i:4:p:384-403
    DOI: 10.1080/17421772.2019.1623419
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    Cited by:

    1. Virginia Di Nino & Anna Ekstam, 2020. "What value added in the trade balances of euro area financial centres?," IFC Bulletins chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Bridging measurement challenges and analytical needs of external statistics: evolution or revolution?, volume 52, Bank for International Settlements.
    2. Anatolijs Prohorovs, 2023. "Re-Export: Assessing the Impact of Re-Export Companies on Sectors and the Economy," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-25, January.
    3. Annie Tubadji & Thomas Colwill & Don Webber, 2021. "Voting with your feet or voting for Brexit: The tale of those stuck behind," Regional Science Policy & Practice, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 247-277, April.
    4. Hege Medin, 2022. "Why do firms import via merchants in entrepôt countries rather than directly from the source?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 854-884, August.

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