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Forecasting disability: application of a frailty model

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  • Joelle H. Fong
  • Michael Sherris
  • James Yap

Abstract

Random changes in individual frailty occur due to the stochastic processes of physical deterioration or environmental influences. This paper implements a stochastic ageing model using maximum likelihood methods and calibrates the model to more than 30 years of historical Australian mortality data in order to examine cohort and gender differences in health-state distributions among older adults. We find that frailty levels have declined over time for both male and female cohorts. Nonetheless, patterns of frailty are different between genders. Older females experience a faster pace of health deterioration than their male counterparts causing them to move quicker into worse states of health. Health states are also more heterogeneous among women than men. Population-level estimates suggest that the number of elderly Australians requiring aged care services will exceed that projected under governmental assumptions by 2050.

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  • Joelle H. Fong & Michael Sherris & James Yap, 2017. "Forecasting disability: application of a frailty model," Scandinavian Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 2017(2), pages 125-147, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:sactxx:v:2017:y:2017:i:2:p:125-147
    DOI: 10.1080/03461238.2015.1092168
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, An & Fuino, Michel & Sehner, Thorsten & Wagner, Joël, 2022. "Valuation of long-term care options embedded in life annuities," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(1), pages 68-94, March.
    2. Javier Pla-Porcel & Manuel Ventura-Marco & Carlos Vidal-Meliá, 2017. "How do unisex life care annuities embedded in a pay-as-you-go retirement system affect gender redistribution?," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2017-11, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
    3. Shemendyuk, Aleksandr & Wagner, Joël, 2024. "On the factors determining the health profiles and care needs of institutionalized elders," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 223-241.
    4. Michel Fuino & Andrey Ugarte Montero & Joël Wagner, 2022. "On the drivers of potential customers' interest in long‐term care insurance: Evidence from Switzerland," Risk Management and Insurance Review, American Risk and Insurance Association, vol. 25(3), pages 271-302, September.

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