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Economy-wide assessment of potential long-term impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Sudan

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  • Khalid Siddig
  • Mohammed Basheer
  • Jonas Luckmann

Abstract

The Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) is expected to double Ethiopia’s electricity generation and impact River Nile flows to Sudan and Egypt. We analyse potential economy-wide impacts on Sudan of the GERD’s long-term operation using a computable general equilibrium model and outputs of previous studies from biophysical models. Based on a 20% increase in hydropower and an assumed rapid irrigation expansion timeline, the results show that the GERD could help increase Sudan's accumulated gross domestic product (GDP) by US$47-83 billion over the period 2020-60 (excluding initial investment costs and other GERD negative and positive impacts). The choice of crops in new irrigation schemes is key to increasing Sudan’s macro-economic benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Khalid Siddig & Mohammed Basheer & Jonas Luckmann, 2021. "Economy-wide assessment of potential long-term impacts of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam on Sudan," Water International, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(3), pages 325-341, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:rwinxx:v:46:y:2021:i:3:p:325-341
    DOI: 10.1080/02508060.2021.1885126
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