Like parents, like children. Does the stratification of education systems moderate the direct effect of origins on destinations?

This article aims to identify the moderating effect of the stratification of education systems (especially the extent to which the first selection is based on student ability) on the association between social origins and destinations, while holding the effect of education constant. Two hypotheses are formulated. The first hypothesis expects a negative moderating effect of the stratification of education systems on the direct effect of origins on destinations, while the null hypothesis argues for no moderating effect. Individual-level data from the European Social Survey (round 1–5) are complemented with new contextual indicators measuring various education system characteristics. Apart from employing these new indicators, another contribution of this article is the use of a more comprehensive measurement of social origins, simultaneously accounting for social class and parental education. Findings show that the direct effect of social origins on occupational attainment is not moderated by the extent to which the first selection is based on student ability. The null effect holds against several robustness checks employing different measurements, sample selections and model specifications.