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The formation of aggregate expectations: wisdom of the crowds or media influence?

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Listed:
  • Jose M. Pavía
  • Itziar Gil-Carceller
  • Alfredo Rubio-Mataix
  • Vicente Coll
  • Jose A. Alvarez-Jareño
  • Cristina Aybar
  • Salvador Carrasco-Arroyo

Abstract

The general elections of 2015 in Spain were elections of change. Two new parties for which voters had no previous historical reference points burst onto the parliamentary scene. Two (partially) opposed theories vie to offer an explanation as to how voters build their aggregate electoral expectations. In this paper, we investigate which mechanism has the greatest influence on the formation of expectations: published opinion or social interactions. Likewise, we also study if there is an ideological bias in the voters’ perception of the future results of the electoral battle. Based on analysis of microdata from a survey (sample size = 14,262) conducted in Spain on the occasion of the general elections of 2015, we provide evidence: firstly, that the published surveys are the main source used by voters to configure their aggregate expectations; and secondly, that the interpretation and projection that voters make about reality is not neutral, but strongly influenced by their own beliefs and preferences.

Suggested Citation

  • Jose M. Pavía & Itziar Gil-Carceller & Alfredo Rubio-Mataix & Vicente Coll & Jose A. Alvarez-Jareño & Cristina Aybar & Salvador Carrasco-Arroyo, 2019. "The formation of aggregate expectations: wisdom of the crowds or media influence?," Contemporary Social Science, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 132-143, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rsocxx:v:14:y:2019:i:1:p:132-143
    DOI: 10.1080/21582041.2017.1367831
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    Cited by:

    1. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    2. Virgilio Pérez & Cristina Aybar & Jose M. Pavía, 2021. "COVID-19 and Changes in Social Habits. Restaurant Terraces, a Booming Space in Cities. The Case of Madrid," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(17), pages 1-18, September.

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