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Why does import competition favor republicans? Localized trade shocks and cultural backlash in the US

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  • Federico Maria Ferrara

Abstract

Evidence that local exposure to Chinese import competition favors right-wing parties has often been attributed to the success of economic nationalism. We test an alternative account. Trade shocks catalyze cultural backlash, which drives support for conservative candidates, as they compete electorally by targeting out-groups. We assess this hypothesis in the 2008–2016 US presidential elections. Using individual-level survey data, we provide evidence that Chinese import shocks drive negative attitudes towards minorities and positive feelings towards in-groups. Opinions about free trade and redistribution are not affected. Results indicate that this rightward shift is primarily driven by non-Hispanic white and male respondents. These findings point to the role played by trade-induced cultural backlash in shaping political outcomes in the US.

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  • Federico Maria Ferrara, 2023. "Why does import competition favor republicans? Localized trade shocks and cultural backlash in the US," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(2), pages 678-701, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rripxx:v:30:y:2023:i:2:p:678-701
    DOI: 10.1080/09692290.2021.1980898
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    Cited by:

    1. Philipp Harms & Nils D. Steiner, 2023. "Attitudes towards Globalization: A Survey," Working Papers 2305, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    2. Giuliano, Paola & Spilimbergo, Antonio, 2024. "Aggregate Shocks and the Formation of Preferences and Beliefs," IZA Discussion Papers 17110, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    3. Kellermann, Kim Leonie, 2024. "Trust we lost: The impact of the Treuhand experience on political alienation in East Germany," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 54-75.

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