Globalization and intention to vote: the interactive role of personal welfare and societal context

Recent electoral successes for candidates with anti-globalization platforms highlight the need to understand globalization’s effects on voting behavior. To understand how globalization affects whether people vote, we posit that it is necessary to consider both globalization’s distributional effects on individuals and individuals’ beliefs about the general view of globalization among their fellow citizens. Drawing on research about the intrinsic value of voting, we argue that the losers of globalization are less likely to vote relative to the winners. However, losers who believe that others also think globalization is a negative force exhibit a higher likelihood of voting. Winners are also more likely to vote when they perceive their compatriots share their positive view of globalization. Both winners and losers who believe that they hold a view inconsistent with the broader public are less likely to vote. We test our hypotheses using an original survey of Americans. In support of our hypotheses, respondent beliefs about majority opinion (or, as a robustness check, the sociotropic effects of trade) significantly reduce the gap between winners and losers in intention to vote. Our results are replicated using a 2016 Pew survey.