Austerity’s failures and policy learning: mapping European Commission officials’ beliefs on fiscal governance in the post-crisis EU

After an initial phase of firefighting against the euro crisis that began in 2010, one that was characterized by policies that focused on strict austerity, from 2014 onwards the European Commission gradually began to ease its recommendations about fiscal consolidation. Between 2015 and 2016, this policy turn was reflected in series of procedural changes in the European Semester. These gave the Commission a certain degree of discretion in applying the rules and interpreting the benchmarks of the post-crisis EU economic governance arrangements. This article investigates if this double shift in fiscal policy and governance that was initiated in 2014 has been consolidated in 2019, and, if so, what has driven that consolidation. By building on the literatures on EU politicization and policy learning, it asks whether the character of this intra-paradigm policy shift has been more Bayesian or sociological. Based on interviews and on a small-scale survey conducted with key civil servants working at the European Commission, we find evidence to support the putative explanation that, through a political process of policy learning, European Semester officials have acquired a more politicized and flexible practice of fiscal governance and a more social vision of the European Semester.